Digital Silk Road

The Third Industrial Revolution Paradigm

By Jeremy Rifkin

A Global Crisis

The global economy is slowing，productivity is waning in every region of the world，and unemployment remains stubbornly high in every country.Economists are predicting 20 more years of low productivity and slow growth.And now，after two Industrial Revolutions in the 19th and 20th Centuries，we can begin to assess the impact of this economic period in human history.Arguably，50%of the human race today is far better off than our ancestors were before the onset of the industrial era.It is also fair to say that 40%of the human race，that is still making two dollars per day or less，is not appreciably better off than its ancestors were before the Industrial Revolution.At the same time，economic inequality between the rich and the poor is at the highest point in human history.Today，the combined wealth of the 8 richest human beings in the world equals the accumulative wealth of half of the human beings currently living on Earth-3.5 billion people.

This dire economic reality is now compounded by the rapid acceleration of climate change brought on by the increasing emissions of global warming gases during the First and Second Industrial Revolutions.What makes the dramatic spikes in the Earth’s temperature so terrifying is that the increase in heat radically shifts the planet’s hydrological cycle.We are a watery planet.The Earth’s diverse ecosystems have evolved over geological time in direct relationship to precipitation patterns.Each rise in temperature of 1℃results in a 7%increase in the moistureholding capacity of the atmosphere.This causes a radical change in the way water is distributed，with more intense precipitation but a reduction in duration and frequency.The consequences are already being felt in eco-systems around the world.We are experiencing more bitter winter snows，more dramatic spring storms and foods，more prolonged summer droughts，more wild？res，more intense hurricanes，a melting of the ice caps on the great mountain ranges，and a rise in sea levels.

The Earth’s ecosystems cannot readjust to a disruptive change in the planet’s water cycle in such a brief moment in time and are under increasing stress，with some on the verge of collapse.The destabilization of ecosystem dynamics around the world has now pushed the biosphere into the sixth extinction event of the past 450 million years of life on Earth.

The New Economic Paradigm

Now，however，a new economic paradigm is emerging that is going to radically change the way we organize economic life and dramatically reduce global warming emissions to address climate change.The People’s Republic of China is embarking on a bold new course to create a high-tech 21st century smart green digital economy，making China potentially the most productive commercial space in the world and the most ecologically sustainable society on Earth.The plan is called“Internet Plus”.To grasp the enormity of the economic change taking place，we need to understand the technological forces that have given rise to new economic systems throughout history.Every great economic paradigm requires three elements，each of which interacts with the other to enable the system to operate as a whole：new communication technologies to more efficiently manage economic activity；new sources of energy to more ef？ciently power economic activity；and new modes of mobility to more ef？ciently move economic activity.

In the 19th Century，steam-powered printing and the telegraph，abundant coal，and locomotives on national rail systems gave rise to the First Industrial Revolution.In the 20th Century，centralized electricity，the telephone，radio and television，cheap oil，and internal combustion vehicles on national road systems converged to create an infrastructure for the Second Industrial Revolution.

Today，the People’s Republic of China is laying the ground work for a Third Industrial Revolution.The digitalized communication Internet is converging with a digitalized renewable Energy Internet，and a digitalized automated Mobility Internet operating with electric and fuel-cell vehicles，riding atop a super Internet of Things（IoT）infrastructure，embedded in the building stock，to transform the way the country manages，powers，and moves economic activity.In the Internet of Things era，sensors will be embedded into every device and appliance，allowing them to communicate with each other and Internet users，providing up to the moment data on the managing，powering，and moving of economic activity in a Internet Plus society.

Currently，14 billion sensors are attached to resource fows，warehouses，road systems，factory production lines，the electricity transmission grid，of？ces，homes，stores，and vehicles，continually monitoring their status and performance and feeding big data back to the Communication Internet，Energy Internet，and Mobility Internet.By 2030，it is estimated there will be more than 100 trillion sensors connecting the human and natural environment in a global distributed intelligent network.Regions around the world and the entire human race can collaborate directly with one another，democratizing economic life.

In this expanded digital economy，private enterprises，cooperatives，nonpro？t organizations，and government agencies connected to the Internet of Things can use Big Data and analytics to develop algorithms that speed efficiency，increase productivity，reduce ecological footprint，address climate change，and dramatically lower the marginal cost of producing and distributing goods and services，making Chinese businesses more competitive in an emerging post-carbon global marketplace.

The Belt and Road Initiative：A New Digital Silk Road Across Eurasia

China’s Internet Plus Third Industrial Revolution is designed to be a fagship for a similar paradigm shift in countries around the world in the 21st Century.The Chinese government has initiated an alternative approach to globalization called the Belt and Road Initiative that can bring nations across Eurasia into a shared digital space to boost commerce，create millions of new jobs，and establish an ecological civilization.This 100-year project will bring both developing nations and developed nations together to create a lateral approach to globalization based on collaboration across a land commons that stretches from Beijing to Brussels.The Belt and Road Initiative will engage 103 nations and over 5 billion people in the largest public works infrastructure build out in world history.Unlike the approach to globalization that characterized the first and second industrial revolutions，with its emphasis on colonialization and，later，hegemonic control by global corporations aligned with a handful of superpowers，the Belt and Road Initiative’s success depends on deep cooperation across local，regional，and national boundaries to assure its long-term stability.In the Digital Silk Road era，every individual home，office，factory，and farm，and every political jurisdiction is a node in an interconnected matrix of networks that manage，power，and move economic activity across the largest continental landmass on the planet.Securing the engagement and support of literally billions of interdependent nodes necessitates a form of open and transparent participation at every level of human activity.The shift from a top-down geopolitical orientation to a more‘glocal’and lateral approach in the erection and management of the new Digital Silk Road infrastructure revolution ushers Eurasia into a new era of partnership and harmonization.

The new Digital Silk Road will significantly advance the already close relationship between the People’s Republic of China and the European Union.Europe is China’s largest trading partner while China is the European Union’s second largest trading partner，making the Belt and Road Initiative the logical next step in establishing an ever-closer relationship between the two regions.Together，China and the EU provide a foundation for the establishment of a more expansive and dynamic commercial and social space.The success of that relationship，however，depends also on bringing in other developed and developing nations that lie between China and the EU to create a seamless digital commercial space across all of Eurasia.

The Belt and Road Initiative will be particularly attractive to developing nations that have been largely excluded from the previous two industrial revolutions，leaving them with scant or little industrial infrastructure.While a lack of infrastructure has generally been regarded as a liability，it becomes an asset in the build out and scale up of an Internet Plus Third Industrial Revolution.Erecting a virgin Third Industrial Revolution digital infrastructure across the developing countries of north，central，and south Asia can be accomplished more efficiently and in a shorter amount of time than having to transform an aging second industrial revolution infrastructure in the more developed countries in the Eurasian space.

New Industries and Jobs on the Digital Silk Road

The communication network across Eurasia will have to be upgraded with the inclusion of universal 5G broadband and free Wi-Fi.The energy infrastructure will need to be transformed from fossil fuel and nuclear power to solar，wind，and other renewable energies.Millions of buildings will need to be retro？tted and equipped with renewable energy harvesting installations，and converted into micro power plants.Storage technologies will have to be built into every layer of the infrastructure to secure intermittent renewable energy.The electricity grid will have to be recon？gured into a smart digital Energy Internet to accommodate the fow of energy produced by millions of green micro power plants.The transportation and logistics sector will have to be digitalized and transformed into a satellite-guided and autonomous mobility Internet of smart vehicles running on intelligent road，rail，and water systems.The introduction of electric and fuel cell transportation will require millions of charging stations and thousands of hydrogen fueling stations.Smart roads，equipped with millions of sensors，feeding real-time information on traf？c fows and the movement of freight will also have to be installed.

The establishment of the Digital Silk Road infrastructure will necessitate the active engagement of virtually every commercial sector，spur commercial innovations，promote Small and Medium Sized Enterprises（SME’s），and employ hundreds of millions of workers over the next？fty years.The power and electricity transmission companies，the telecommunication and cable industry，the ICT sector，the electronics industry，the construction industry，real estate，transportation and logistics，the manufacturing sector，retail trade，and the food，agriculture，and lifesciences sectors will all need to be brought into the process.Many of today’s leading companies，as well as new commercial players，will help establish and manage the Internet of Things platform，allowing millions of others—small，medium，and large sized businesses，nonprofit enterprises，government agencies，and prosumers—to use 5G mobile communications，renewable energy，autonomous transportation and logistics，and a panoply of other goods and services at low marginal cost in the exchange economy or at near zero marginal cost in the emerging Sharing Economy.

Semi-skilled，skilled，professional，and knowledge workers will need to be employed across every region of Eurasia to construct and service the three Internets and the Internet of Things that make up the infrastructure of the Digital Silk Road economy.There are millions of residential，commercial，and industrial buildings in Eurasia that will need to be transformed into distributed Big Data nodes，micro power generating sites，and electric charging stations for electric vehicles over the coming decades.This vast transformation will create millions of new jobs while saving millions of existing jobs in the manufacturing，engineering，construction，and real estate sectors.

Transforming the energy regime and electricity grid from fossil fuels and nuclear power to solar，wind，and other renewable energies is extremely labor intensive and will also require millions of Eurasian workers and spawn thousands of new businesses.The recon？guration of the electricity grid into an Energy Internet will generate new installation jobs and give birth to thousands of clean Web app start-up companies.Installing storage technologies across the entire economic infrastructure to manage the fow of green electricity will generate comparable mass employment and new businesses as well.

Rebooting the mobility sector from the internal-combustion engine to electric and fuel-cell vehicles will necessitate the makeover of the road and rail systems and fueling infrastructure across Eurasia.Installing millions of charging stations along roads，rail lines，and in parking spaces is labor-intensive employment that will require a sizable workforce.

Toward an Ecological Civilization

The prospect of building out a Digital Silk Road infrastructure out？tted and equipped to mine Big Data and use analytics to create algorithms and apps to dramatically increase aggregate efficiency and productivity and reduce marginal costs in the managing，powering，and moving of economic activity across Eurasia marks a giant leap forward for humankind.In the new smart era，everyone becomes their own efficiency expert and chief productivity officer，continually creating new apps to improve aggregate ef？ciency and reduce marginal cost across their respective value chains.If billions of people and hundreds of thousands of businesses equipped with smart mobile technology are continually finding new analytics and apps to increase their aggregate efficiency at whatever value chain they are in，it means we’re using less of the Earth and getting more out of it.In other words，more of the energy and materials gets into the product or service and less is lost.If what we do produce is shared-share the cars，share the homes，share the toysin an emerging sharing/circular economy，nothing needs to go to the land？ll，all of which reduces humanity’s collective ecological footprint，mitigates climate change，and takes society into an ecological age.

The vision of billions of families，millions of communities，and hundreds of thousands of businesses generating their own renewable energy in and around their buildings，at near zero marginal cost，and sharing it with one another across a Eurasian Silk Road renewable Energy Internet changes the very notion of collective responsibility for the planet we live in.In the Biosphere Era，every Eurasian community becomes a steward of the clean renewable energy that bathes the Earth，paving the way to a more sustainable world.

The Digital Silk Road Initiative marks the next stage of the human journey.For the first time in history，we are on the cusp of uniting a large swath of the human family in a common endeavor to enrich the quality of life and the ecological stability of the planet.Transforming Eurasia into a seamless digital commercial and social space has far-reaching implications for uniting the human family in the coming century.

Digital Silk Road，written by CCID，provides an informative，comprehensive，and engaging guide to the theory，practice，and strategy accompanying the Belt and Road digital neural network across Eurasia.

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Jeremy Rifkin is the author of The Zero Marginal Cost Society：The Internet of Things，the Collaborative Commons，and the Eclipse of Capitalism and The Third Industrial Revolution：How Lateral Power is Transforming Energy，the Economy，and the World.Mr.Rifkin is an advisor to heads of state around the world，and president of the Foundation on Economic Trends in Washington，DC.He also teaches in the executive education program at the Wharton School.Mr.Rifkin is ranked 123 in the World Post/Huf？ngton Post 2015 global survey of“The World’s Most Influential Voices.Mr.Rifkin is also listed among the top 10 most infuential economic thinkers in the survey.The survey was prepared at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and used collective intelligence to correlate the rankings.