Day11 In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito，the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased

The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper：

“In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito，the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased.Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened.Under Varro，who served as mayor for four years before Montoya，the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased.Clearly，the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument.For example，you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion.You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument，what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound，and what，if anything，would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

文勇五问：

（1）本题中，事实是什么？结论是什么？“In the？rst four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito，the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased.Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened.Under Varro，who served as mayor for four years before Montoya，the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased.”是事实，“Clearly，the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro.”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）原文在对比两任市长的功绩时，是否给出了大背景？两个时间段内是否可能有人为不可控的事件？例如：重大天灾、全国性政策变动、全国乃至全球金融动荡等。

（3）一个城市的失业率和人口增长率是评判一个城市发展状况的重要指标吗？是所有指标吗？单凭这两方面的数据对比就能判断出Montoya和Varro孰优孰劣了吗？

（4）Montoya在任时，新增的企业和倒闭的企业的数值比是一比二，是否一定代表经济出了问题？有没有可能倒闭的企业是自然淘汰，新增的企业效益弥补了空缺，或者甚至是远远超出了倒闭企业的原有效益，可以以一抵十呢？Varro在任时，企业的状况又如何呢？文中是否给出了足够信息做对比？

（5）即使Varro在任时做得比Montoya好，就能保证Varro当选后一定会治理有方吗？这里是否犯了时间轴论证的错误？

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