Day32 Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age

The following appeared as part of the business plan of an investment and？nancial consulting firm：

“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age，from age 10 through age 60.Even after age 60，coffee consumption remains high.The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola，however，declines with increasing age.Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years.Given that the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years，it follows that the demand for coffee will increase and the demand for cola will decrease during this period.We should，therefore，consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”

Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument.In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument.For example，you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion.You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument，what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound，and what，if anything，would help you better evaluate its conclusion.

文勇五问：

（1）本题中，事实是什么？结论是什么？“Studies suggest that an average coffee drinker’s consumption of coffee increases with age，from age 10 through age 60.Even after age 60，coffee consumption remains high.The average cola drinker’s consumption of cola，however，declines with increasing age.Both of these trends have remained stable for the past 40 years.”和“the number of older adults will significantly increase as the population ages over the next 20 years，”是事实，“We should，therefore，consider transferring our investments from Cola Loca to Early Bird Coffee.”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）过去的现象一定会延续到现在吗？现在的现象一定也会延续到将来吗？时间轴论证是一种有可能错误的论述方法。

（3）二十年间，“older adults”的人数会大幅增长就代表喝咖啡的人一定会变得多于喝可乐的人吗？文中有提到这两类人现在的基数是多少吗？有预测两方分别增长和减少的幅度吗？

（4）文中并未涉及人们对于咖啡和可乐的需求量，只是说到人们随着年龄的增长，对于咖啡的需求会增加，对于可乐的需求会减少，是否可能存在这样的情形，增加后的咖啡需求量依旧比不上减少后的可乐需求量呢？

（5）即便coffee需求量增加，cola需求量降低，投资咖啡就一定是好的选择吗？一项投资需要考虑的要素有很多，产品的需求量增大当然是其中的一项，但利润的高低呢？即使咖啡业是个回报可观的行业，投资Early Bird Coffee公司就一定是个好的选择吗？原文有给出这家公司的经营状况、产品信息吗？

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