Chapter 2 An Epitome of World Modernization：A Chinese Case Study
The teacher told me human history is a river in the middle school but did not say where it's.
To a certain extent, human history is a history of evolution. There are two kinds of the human evolu-tion[1，2]，one is the origin and the biological evolution of Homo sapiens[3～5]，the other is the socio-cultural evolution of human society[6～8]，and the interaction between each other had happened for a long time[9，10].There are many different thoughts on the evolution of human society, and some scholars believe that human history is a long river[11，12]，but no positive typical example has been provided for that up to 2000.There are 261 international rivers[13]and 227 major river basins with a global assessment[14]，and the Yangtze River of China is the world's third-longest river[15].The Yangtze River Valley（YRV）had been chosen as a case for the studies to check the popular hypothesis of the“long river of human history”and world modernization since 2000，and the“Yangtze River Model of Human Civilization”has been presented[16，17].To a great ex-tent, the distribution of development level of YRV is an epitome of world modernization and human civiliza-tion.
Social Stages of Human History
Some anthropologists believe that the humankind appeared in Africa around 2. 5 million years ago[18].The human civilization emerged around 5500 years ago[19].There are different thoughts on the social stages of human history[20～29]，such as three, four, five and six stages and so on（Figure 2-1）.The development of different countries and regions was asynchronous（Table 2-1），and the modes or routes of social evolution are of diversity.
Based on the differences of the rate and employment structure of the social productivity, there is one kind of the stage division of the historical process of the evolution of human society, which is the four stages of the primitive, agricultural, industrial and knowledge society（Table 2-2）. This paper suppose that the mode of the four stages presented a basic model of the evolution of human society, and the YRV has been chosen as a case to check this hypothesis.
Figure 2-1 The Social Stages of Human History[20～29]
Table 2-1 The Uneven of World Developing：The Distribution of Nations and Population in 2001[30～32]
Table 2-2 The Features or Standards of the Classification of Four Stages of Human Society
Basic Facts of the Yangtze River Valley
The Yangtze River, which is about 6300-kilometer-long, rises in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau in the west and reaches Shanghai in the east on the coast of the Pacific Ocean. It flows through a total of 12 regions of Chi-na, its valley covers about 1.8 million square kilometers and with 517.2 million people in 2006.Specifical-ly, its upper reaches include the six regions of Qinghai, Tibet, Yunnan, Sichuan, Chongqing and Guizhou, its middle reaches comprise the four regions of Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi and Anhui（partial），while its lower reaches include the two regions of Jiangsu and Shanghai.The most parts of Anhui belong to the lower rea-ches.Shanghai lies near the estuary of the river.
Phenomenal analysis of the Yangtze River Valley
The following phenomena（Figure 2-2）could be identified successively in the YRV by the direct obser-vation since 2000[16，17].
Figure 2-2 The Features of the Four Sections of Yangtze River Valley and the Four Stages of the Evolution of Human Society[16，17].a.The Regional Features of the Yangtze River Valley in 2006.b.The Yangtze River Model of the Human Civilization Process.
The most parts of the upper reaches of the YRV are agricultural regions and some still have the traces and features of a primitive society[17]. For example, the Mosuo ethnic group which has about 40 000 people and inhabits at the area where Yunnan and Sichuan provinces meet, still preserves the habits and customs ofa matrilineal society till now.This tradition was the basic lifestyle of human society in the late Paleolithic Age in about 10 000 years ago.In the mountainous areas of Yunnan province, some of the ethnic groups, such as Jino, Lahu, Blang and Hani ethnic group, still partly live on slash-and-burn farming in 2006.This is one of the basic mode of the production of human society in the Neolithic Age in about 6 000 years ago.
The vast areas of the middle reaches of the YRV are the rural areas featuring small-scale self-subsist-ence peasant economy and agricultural society. In 2006，for example，61%of the population in Hunan Province still lived in the rural areas, and 54%of the labor force engaged with agricultural production.
In the lower reaches of the YRV, the Jiangsu Province displayed the strong characteristics of an indus-trial society. For example, the proportion of agriculture employment in Jiangsu dropped to 28%，while the urbanization rate rose to 52%，and the southern part of Jiangsu was dotted with cities in 2006.
At the estuary of the YRV, Shanghai is developing a new economy or knowledge economy, and moving rapidly towards a knowledge society. Its proportion of industry employment has gone down significantly since the 1990s, while its proportion of service employment has increased rapidly and reached 54%in 2006.Some transformation from modernization to post-modernization took place, much as what had happened in some advanced countries since 1970s[22，25].
The YRV has also been noted for its cultural and civilization diversity. The 35 ethnic groups of the P.R.China mainly live in the 12 regions of the YRV.Each ethnic group has its own culture, contributing to the valley's cultural diversity.Development is also uneven among the different sections of the YRV.In the middle reaches, for example, there are both vast rural areas and large and middle-sized cities, and the agri-cultural and industrial civilizations co-exist, featuring the civilization diversity.
In the summary, the typical features of the four stages of the evolution of human society, from primi-tive, agricultural, industrial to knowledge society, could be found successively in the upper, middle, lower reaches and estuary of the YRV in 2006，as if the river of human history had flowed from the upper reaches, to the middle reaches, the lower reaches and the estuary of the Yangtze River[31]. This phenomenon should be regarded as a case or one kind of the epitome of the evolution of human society and the“long river of hu-man history”，and named as the Yangtze River Model of the human civilization process[16，17]（Figure 2-2）.
Statistical analysis of the Yangtze River Valley
The above findings showed us some features of the YRV coming from the direct observation, and what will the statistical data of the YRV tell us？
（1）The economic indicators of the YRV presented a top-down unevenness and orderliness（Table 2-3）in 2006. From the upper to the lower reaches, the social productivity（GDP per capita）increases, the pro-portion of agriculture employment declines, and both the proportion of industry and the service employment rise.The level of economic development in the lower reaches is visibly higher than that in the middle and upper reaches.
Table 2-3 The Economic Development of the Yangtze River Valley in 2006
The different sections of the YRV had the different economic characteristics in 2006. For example, the upper and middle reaches of the YRV are largely agricultural economy, the Jiangsu in the lower reaches pos-sesses the characteristics of industrial economy, and Shanghai at the estuary has the features of the“de-in-dustrialization”，and its knowledge economy has begun to take shape.The proportion of industry employment in Shanghai was declining steadily from 1990 to 2006（Table 2-4）.
Table 2-4 Changes of Shanghai's Employment and Output Structures Since 1970
（2）The social indicators of the YRV also presented a top-down unevenness and orderliness（Table 2-5）in 2006. From the upper to the lower reaches, the urbanization rate, life expectancy at birth, gross en-rollment ratio of tertiary education and Internet popularization rate were progressively increasing.The level of social development in the lower reaches was visibly higher than that in the middle and upper reaches.
Table 2-5 The Social Development of the Yangtze River Valley in 2006
The different parts of the YRV had the different social characteristics in 2006. Generally, the upper and middle reaches of the YRV largely belong to agricultural society, the Jiangsu in the lower reaches has the partial features of industrial society, and Shanghai at the estuary already possesses the partial characteristics of the developed countries, which have entered the period of the knowledge society.For example, the gross enrollment ratio of tertiary education and the life expectancy at birth of Shanghai were 57%and 80 years separately, and that of United Kingdom were 59%and 79 years respectively in 2006.
（3）The top-down unevenness and orderliness of the economic and social development in the YRV in 2006 were statistically significant（Table 2-6）. For example, while the social productivity and urbanizationrate increased progressively from the upper to the lower reaches in 2006，they had also a significant correla-tion with the most economic and social indicators with t-test（α=0.05，n=12）in the 12 regions of the YRV.
Table 2-6 Correlation Coefficients of 8 Indicators in the 12 Regions of the YRV in 2006
The social productivity（GDP per capita），for example, had a significant negative correlation with the proportion of agriculture employment, and a significant positive correlation with the proportion of industry and service employment；and had a significant positive correlation with the urbanization rate, life expectancy at birth, gross enrollment ratio of tertiary education and Internet popularization rate in 2006.
The urbanization rate, for example, had a significant positive correlation with the GDP per capita, pro-portions of industry and service employment, and a significant negative correlation with the proportion of ag-riculture employment；and had a significant positive correlation with the life expectancy at birth, gross en-rollment rate of tertiary and Internet popularization rate in 2006.
In the summary, there were the statistical features of the agricultural society（and the traces of the primitive society）in the upper reaches, the statistical features of the agricultural, industrial and knowledge society in the middle reaches, lower reaches and the estuary of the YRV separately, and the top-down un-evenness and orderliness of the economic and social development in the YRV were statistically significant in 2006.
Main Points and Discussion
The above results show that there is a co-evolution of the economic and social indicators in the YRV, and ahigh similarity and comparableness between the features of the top-down four sections of the YRV in 2006 and the four stages of the historical process of the social evolution.
The hypothesis above on the“mode of the four stages presented a basic model of the evolution of human society”enjoys the supporting from the case study of the YRV.
In a sense, the YRV is a spatial expression of the human history, which converts the time structure of the human history into a real spatial structure with somewhat“visible”. The YRV could be regarded as one kind of the historical miniature or a practical case of the evolution of human society and of the“long river of human history”，and also an epitome of the world modernization, which condenses the history of human civi-lization and world modernization process into a river valley.
There are many different ideas or modes of the socio-cultural evolution[33，34]，and many factors having an influence on the human evolution[2，35～37].Although there were some different thoughts, the YRV shows us an actual case of the evolution of human society and the“long river of human history”，and the global knowledge society should be one direction of human society in the future.
The YRV indicates that：（a）The process of the social evolution is highly uneven and asynchronous；（b）There is the direction and structure of the evolution of human society；（c）There is the cultural and civ-ilization diversity in 2006；（d）If the process and changes of the transformation from agricultural to industri-al society and economy was the first stage of modernization, and that of the transformation from industrial to knowledge society and economy would be the second stage of modernization[26]. To some content, the YRV could be also regarded as one epitome of the present situation of the development of the world and China.This paper presents a summary of the main points of case studies on the YRV, but excludes the analysis of the mechanism and the policy implications of this case.
Chuanqi He（China Center for Modernization Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences）
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