中国—东盟研究(2018年第三辑 总第七辑)
上QQ阅读APP看书,第一时间看更新

六 结论

“一带一路”倡议不仅仅是中国发展自身经济的一种方式,也是中国作为世界大国之一获得更多尊重的一种方式。正因如此,中国需要确保自己的影响力在全球众多地区,尤其是在参与“一带一路”建设的国家中得到体现。在2017年5月的“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛开幕式上,中国国家主席习近平强调,“一带一路”不是中国干涉他国内政的工具。事实上,“一带一路”以互惠互利为目标。中国需要确保这些不只是空口白话。中国需要赢得这些国家政府和民众的信任,还必须了解当地的利益需求,并在必要时毫不犹豫地调整其战略。

印尼必须在坚持国家利益和维护主权与领土完整的基础上推进其发展战略。在国与国之间相互依赖程度日益加深的今天,印尼将从包括中国在内的许多发展伙伴那里寻求利益。在印尼政府宣布基础设施项目将成为国家发展计划的基石之一后,中国通过“一带一路”倡议所提供的资助便更富吸引力。然而,印尼需要在追求美好愿望和谨慎处理与中国的关系之间不断调整,这样双方才能从“一带一路”中获得共同利益。

本文开头的中国谚语,其字面意思是任何一个政府的首要任务就是为人民谋福祉帮助人民致富。政府可以制定和实施政策,并提供“先修路”等必要的工具来实现这一目标。互利共赢对于坚持施行“一带一路”倡议而言非常重要,中国和有关国家必须在多边主义和伙伴关系原则的指导下开展合作。这两个原则对中国和“一带一路”参与国之间维系健康的双边关系,特别是中国与印尼关系来说至关重要。多边主义和伙伴关系应该建立在相互信任和尊重的基础上,这样“一带一路”倡议才能得到优化,其沿线国家的人民才能享受到它所带来的好处。

The Belt and Road Initiative and China-ASEAN Relations:An Indonesian Perspective

Nur Rachmat Yuliantoro

Abstract Since its introduction in 2013,the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)has been one central issue that defines China’s relations with the world.Many countries have welcomed the BRI,including Indonesia,the largest country in Southeast Asia.The impact of the BRI in the region depends on the state of Sino-Indonesia relations to a significant degree.This three-part article was a brief analysis of the extent to which Indonesia viewed the BRI in the context of bilateral relations with China and how the BRI could help Indonesia manage development for its people.The first part,a SWOT descriptive analysis,demonstrated the strengths,weaknesses,opportunities and threats that Indonesia had in the context of the BRI.Included here was how Indonesians viewed the BRI as well as indications of a possible alignment of the BRI with Indonesia’s development strategy.The second part highlighted the relationship between the BRI and the efforts to develop ASEAN Community,followed by the third part that tried to see the impact of the BRI on a much more complex relationship between China and ASEAN countries,especially Indonesia.The article concluded that multilateralism and partnership were keys to healthy relations between China and the BRI countries.

Key Words China;Indonesia;Belt and Road Initiative

Author Nur Rachmat Yuliantoro,Dept.Head of Department of International Relations,Universitas Gadjah Mada.


[1] 陈艳阳,广西大学中国—东盟研究院缅甸研究所,研究助理。

[2] Bruno Jetin,“‘One Belt-One Road Initiative’ and ASEAN Connectivity:Synergy Issues and Potentialities”,in B.R.Deepak ed.,China’s Global Rebalancing and the New Silk Road,Singapore:Springer,2018,p.146.

[3] Silk Road Associates,“Belt & Road:Opportunity & Risk”,Baker McKenzie,October,2017,https://www.bakermckenzie.com/-/media/files/insight/publications/2017/10/belt-road/ baker_mckenzie_belt_road_report_2017.pdf?la=en,登录时间:2018年 3 月28日。

[4] Simon Saragih,“Tawaran Besar dari China”,Kompas,May 14,2017,p.3.

[5] William A Callahan,“China’s ‘Asia Dream’:The Belt Road Initiative and the New Regional Order”,Asian Journal of Comparative Politics,Vol.1,No.3,2016,pp.226-243,https://doi.org/10.1177/2057891116647806,登录时间:2018年2月10日。关于“一带一路”在地缘政治与经济方面的论述,可参见Peter Cai,“Understanding China’s Belt and Road Initiative”,Lowy Institute for International Policy,March 22,2017,https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/understanding-belt-and-road-initiative,登录时间:2018年3月15日。

[6] Siwage D.Negara,“The Importance of One Belt One Road for Indonesia”,The Jakarta Post,May 29,2017,http://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2017/05/29/theimportance-of-one-belt-one-road-for-indonesia.html,登录时间:2018年 3 月28日。

[7] Siwage D.Negara,“The Importance of One Belt One Road for Indonesia”,The Jakarta Post,May 29,2017,http://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2017/05/29/theimportance-of-one-belt-one-road-for-indonesia.html,登录时间:2018年 3 月28日。

[8] Karlis Salna,“Indonesia Seeks to Plug $157 Billion Gap in Nation-Building Plan”,The Jakarta Post,January 26,2018,http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/01/26/indonesiaseeks-to-plug-157-billion-gap-in-nation-building-plan.html,登录时间:2018年2月18日。同时参见The Economist Intelligence Unit,One Belt,One Road:An Economic Roadmap,March 2016,p.79.

[9] Vincent Lingga,“Belt and Road Summit to Focus on ASEAN Infrastructure Opportunities”,The Jakarta Post,April 22,2016,http://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2016/04/22/belt-and-road-summit-to-focus-on-asean-infrastructure-opportunities.html,登录时间:2018年3月28日。

[10] Karlis Salna,“Indonesia Seeks to Plug $157 Billion Gap in Nation-Building Plan”.

[11] Liza Yosephine,“Indonesia Calls for Concrete Projects for OBOR”,The Jakarta Post,May 18,2017,http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/05/18/indonesia-calls-for-concrete-projects-for-obor.html,登录时间:2018年2月18日。

[12] The Economist Intelligence Unit,One Belt,One Road:An Economic Roadmap,pp.76-77.

[13] Benny Koestanto,“Beijing Bela Prakarsa Sabuk Dan Jalan”,Kompas,August 29,2018,p.8.

[14] Tommy Soesmanto and Yenny Tjoe,“Indonesia’s Government Debt ahead of 2019 Presidential Election:A Real Economic Concern?” The Conversation,June 28,2018,http://theconversation.com/indonesias-government-debt-ahead-of-2019-presidential-election-a-real-economic-concern-97708,登录时间:2018年6月28日。

[15] Vincent Lingga,“Belt and Road Summit to Focus on ASEAN Infrastructure Opportunities”.

[16] Vincent Lingga,“Commentary:Time of Reckoning on Pace of Belt and Road Initiative”,The Jakarta Post,July 3,2018,http://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2018/07/03/commentary-time-of-reckoning-on-pace-of-belt-and-road-initiative.html,登录时间:2018年7月5日。

[17] Siwage D.Negara,“The Importance of One Belt One Road for Indonesia”.中国工人问题已成为印尼社交媒体上最受热议的话题之一。印尼社交媒体报道称,印尼有1000万至2000万中国工人,但印尼人力资源部对此表示否认。印尼工业部表示:“在印尼的中国工人只有2.1万人左右且主要从事中国建筑项目的工作。”

[18] Arifi Saiman,“Regulating Chinese Workers under Belt and Road”,The Jakarta Post,August 20,2018,http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/08/20/regulating-chinese-workers-under-belt-and-road.html,登录时间:2018年8月20日。

[19] Ignatius W.Wibisono,“ASEAN-China Relations:Indonesia’s Perspective”,in Lai Hongyi and Lim Tin Seng eds. Harmony and Development:ASEAN-China Relations,Singapore:World Scientific,2007,pp.78-86.

[20] Jusuf Wanandi,“Insight:Belt and Road Initiative:Seizing New Opportunities”,The Jakarta Post,May 13,2017,http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/05/13/insight-belt-and-road-initiative-seizing-new-opportunities.html,登录时间:2018年2月18日。

[21] “On ‘Belt and Road’,Indonesians Not as Supportive as Beijing Hopes”,The Jakarta Globe,June 17,2015,http://jakartaglobe.id/news/belt-road-indonesians-not-supportive-beijing-hopes/,登录时间:2018年3月28日。

[22] Dwiki Kurniawan and Irfa Puspitasari,“Hedging Maritim Indonesia Di Tengah Persaingan Strategis India-China”,Indonesian Perspective,Vol.2,No.2,2017,pp.94-95.

[23] Elisa Valenta,“Measuring Risks on China’s Belt and Road Initiative for Indonesia”,The Insider Stories,April 12,2018,https://theinsiderstories.com/measuring-risks-on-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-for-indonesia/,登录时间:2018年4月15日。自中国击败日本,成为雅万高铁项目的主要出资国和承包商以来,雅万高铁项目便一直存在争议。该项目被视为“‘缺乏明确的社会经济和环境可行性的标志性项目’。为了从中国获得更多的资金或投资,印尼可能不得不接受这类项目”。(Negara,“The Importance of One Belt One Road for Indonesia”)

[24] “Indonesia,China Sign $23.3b in Contracts”,The Jakarta Post,April 14,2018,http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/04/14/indonesia-china-sign-23-3b-in-contracts.html,登录时间:2018年4月15日。

[25] “Domestic and Foreign Direct Investment Realization-Quarter II and January-June 2018”,Badan Koordinasi Penanaman Modal(BKPM)RI,August 14,2018,https://www.bkpm.go.id/images/uploads/ file_siaran_pers/ Paparan_Bahasa_Inggris_Final.pdf,登录时间:2018年8月15日。同时参见 Rachmadea Aisyah,“Chinese Investments Trending in Indonesia”,The Jakarta Post,May 2,2018,http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2018/05/ 02/chinese-investments-trending-in-indonesia.html,登录时间:2018年5月2日。

[26] Jusuf Wanandi Wanandi,“Insight:Belt and Road Initiative:Seizing New Opportunities”.

[27] David Li and Fajar Ramadhan,“Indonesia Poised to Benefit as China’s Belt and Road Turns Green”,The Jakarta Post,June 22,2018,http://www.thejakartapost.com/academia/2018/06/22/indonesia-poised-to-benefit-as-chinas-belt-and-road-turns-green.html,登录时间:2018年6月22日。

[28] Fedina Suryandani,“Indonesia Plays it Cool in Competition for China’s OBOR Money”,The Jakarta Post,May 12,2017,http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/05/12/indonesia-plays-it-cool-in-competition-for-chinas-obor-money.html,登录时间:2018年1月7日。

[29] Fedina Suryandani,“Indonesia Plays it Cool in Competition for China’s OBOR Money”.

[30] Xu Bu,“When the OBOR Initiative Meets ASEAN Vision 2025”,The Jakarta Post,May 12,2017,http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2017/05/12/when-obor-initiative-meets-asean-vision-2025.html,登录时间:2018年4月20日。

[31] Kaewkamol Pitakdumrongkit,“China’s Maritime Silk Road:Challenging Test for ASEAN”,RSIS Commentary 030,February 23,2018,https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/CO18030.pdf,登录时间:2018年2月23日。

[32] 原句为:“sering kali dianggap sebagai sumber keretakan dalam menjaga sentralitas ASEAN dan keutuhannya sebagai organisasi regional.” René Pattiradjawane,“Multilateralisasi Sabuk dan Jalan”,Kompas,May 15,2017,p.8.

[33] 李克强提出中国—东盟未来十年合作框架的七点建议:积极探讨签署中国—东盟国家睦邻友好合作条约,加强安全领域交流与合作,启动中国—东盟自贸区升级版谈判,加快互联互通基础设施建设,通过中国—东盟银联体加强本地区金融合作,稳步推进海上合作,密切人文、科技、环保等交流。参见Chaobing Qiu,“China-ASEAN Relations:Consensus on Principles,Differences on Specifics”,Asia Pacific Bulletin 238,October 31,2013,http://ias.cssn.cn/webpic/web/ias/PDF_FILE/201311473338.pdf,登录时间:2018年 3月28日。

[34] Wang Yan,“China’s Rise and Partnership with ASEAN”,In Lai Hongyi and Lim Tin Seng eds.,Harmony and Development:ASEAN-China Relations,Singapore:World Scientific,2007,p.89.

[35] Xu Bu,“Maritime Silk Road Can Bridge China-ASEAN Cooperation”,The Jakarta Post,August 5,2015,http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2015/08/05/maritime-silk-road-can-bridge-china-asean-cooperation.html,登录时间:2018年1月20日。

[36] Jusuf Wanandi,“ASEAN-China Relations after 25 Years”,CSIS Blog,October 19,2016,https://www.csis.or.id/blog/article/page/asean-china_relations_after_25_years.html,登录时间:2018年5月20日。