Chapter One The Belt and Road Initiative as a Hot Spot for Cooperation in Africa

1.Geopoliti cal Concerns of The Belt and Road Initiative Cooperation with Africa[1]

As the Belt and Road Initiative continues to advance and expand to the world,African countries with abundant resources,huge market potential and strong infrastructure construction are actively participating in the Belt and Road Initiative construction with full enthusiasm,gradually becoming an important participant in the global promotion of the Belt and Road Initiative.Chinese companies have also become important participants and builders in the development of infrastructure and industrialization in Africa.According to statistics from the Ministry of Commerce of China,at least one million Chinese people are currently engaged in economic and trade activities such as investment,trade and project construction in Africa,with more than 3,500 Chinese-funded enterprises having invested in Africa.The security of Africa has been closely related to and inseparable from the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative,Chinese investment and the security of Chinese people.Therefore,in order to smoothly advance the integration of the Belt and Road Initiative and African development,it is necessary to fully and comprehensively understand the current geopoliti cal risks and challenges facing Africa.

1.1 Current Status of Geopoliti cal Risks in Africa

Although the politi cal and security situation in Africa has basi cally maintained an overall stable situation in recent years,the security challenges it faces are still very serious.Conflicts and turmoil still exist in some countries and regions,and the“arc of instability”of terrorist activities is undercurrent and expanding.In summary,Africa's geopoliti cal risks are mainly manifested in three aspects,namely,politi cal risks caused by politi cal instability and regime changes,security risks caused by terrorist activities,diplomatic and geostrategic risks brought about by competition between major powers in Africa.

First,the politi cal risks brought by politi cal turmoil and regime change.From the perspective of the politi cal situation,since the So called“Arab Spring”broke out in North African countries in late 2011,Tunisia and Egypt have gradually stabilized after experiencing ups and downs in domestic politi cal and social transformations,while Libya after the fall ofGaddafi has fallen into a civil war situation involving warlords and even a proxy war between the two sides.The armed confrontation between the Libyan National Army,an armed organization that supports the regime in eastern Libya,and the Libyan National Unity Government that controls the west,has become increasingly fierce since the second half of 2019.The leader of the Libyan National Army,General Haftar,is supported by Egypt,Saudi Arabia,Russia and other countries,while the Libyan National Unity Government recognized by the United Nations is supported by Turkey and Qatar.Turkey even sent troops to directly participate in the Tripoli defense of the Libyan National Unity Government.The es calation of the civil war in Libya and the involvement of countries outside the region have not only made the country's own turbulence difficult to calm in the short term,but also affected the stability and economic construction of the entire North Africa and even the Arab world,which is a natural influence on the advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative in the region.It also has a negative impact.

In addition to the civil war in Libya,in recent years,North Africa and the Horn of Africa have also experienced politi cal turmoil in Algeria and Sudan and the forced resignation of long-term powerful leaders.In February 2019,Algerian President Bouteflika,who had been in power for 20 years and had suffered a stroke for many years,announced his candidacy for the presidential election,seeking a fifth presidential term since he came to power in 1999.As a result,it drew strong opposition from the Algerian people,who took to the streets to protest on Friday's Juma Day(the day of group worship on Friday)for six consecutive weeks.Under strong pressure,the Algerian army finally chose to give up support for Bouteflika and publicly demanded that the president step down immediately.Bouteflika was reluctantly forced to formally resign on April 2.A story script almost identi cal to that of Algeria was soon staged in Sudan.After more than four months of public protests and demonstrations,the Sudanese military chose to stand on the side of the people,arresting Bashir on April 11,2019 and agreeing to transfer him to the International Criminal Court in The Hague for trial in February 2020.Bashir's 30-year rule of Sudan also came to an end.The sudden changes in the politi cal situation in Algeria and Sudan not only have continuity at the time point,but also have similarities in background reasons,such as the collapse of economic development,serious inflation and unemployment problems,people taking to the streets to continue to protest and demonstrate,the position of the ruling class and the attitudes having split,the army having turned and no longer supporting the original president,the president having stepped down to quell popular anger,etc.In the final analysis,under the double attacks of the demands of“democracy”and“people's livelihood”,these two long-ruling and elderly leaders were finally ousted from the throne of power.

In addition,the turbulence in Africa after the Cold War is often related to election disputes.“Chaos due to elections”or“chaos at every election”often becomes a specific label for politi cal development in Africa.For example,the 2019 presidential and national assembly elections in Nigeria originally scheduled to start on February 16 had to be postponed for a week due to multiple violent incidents in the two weeks before the election.Senegal's violence before theMarch 2019 election resulted in at least 22 deaths,including 4 police officers[2].In general,due to the large number of African countries,since the beginning of the multi-party democratization process after the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s,after nearly 30 years of stumbling exploration,the elections have not yet shaken off the tribal and regional politics of the election.The conflicts caused by election disputes ostensibly originate from the closeness of the votes of the two sides of the elections and therefore not giving up to each other,some fraud and opacity during the election process,etc.But the underlying reasons are the immature development of African democracy,the“victor gets all”politi cal mentality,and the alienation of traditional tribal politics and modern democratic politics.Although the elections in African countries have gradually stabilized in recent years,elections in some countries are still accompanied by violent conflicts,accusations of election fraud,demonstrations and other unstable factors,which have a certain negative impact on Chinese personnel abroad in host countries.

Second,the security risks caused by terrorist activities.From the perspective of terrorist activities and the anti-terrorism situation,the task of anti-terrorism in Africa has become increasingly difficult in recent years.The Somali Al Shabaab(mainly being active in Somalia and neighboring Kenya and Uganda and other East African countries and the Horn of Africa),Al Qaeda in the IslamicMaghreb(the organization is based in the Sahel region of Africa,with the scope of terrorist activities in the past mainly covering four countries including Algeria,Mali,Mauritania,and Niger)and Nigeria's Boko Haram(the organization created a series of suicide bombings including the bombing of the United Nations building in Nigeria's capital Abuja in August 2011).The three African Islamic radi cal organization has formed an“instability arc”of terrorist activities from Northeast and North to West Africa.Moreover,according to a report issued by the US Central Intelligence Agency and the British think tank Royal United Services Institute,the three African Islamic radi cal organizations mentioned above have begun to cooperate,with the focus of anti-jihad and anti-terrorism operations having shifted to Africa.[3]

What's more,since June 2014,the Islamic State(IS)first emerged in the border zone between Syria and Iraq,and subsequently suffered blows and defeats in Iraq and Syria in recent years.Elite personnel and the base camp for terrorist activities have moved to Africa,and the“upgraded version”of terrorist activities that use terrorist means to achieve separatism have also begun to be echoed in Africa.For example,in August 2014,Nigeria's Boko Haram quickly followed and announced the establishment of its so- called Islamic State in its entrenched northeastern Nigeria.In November of the same year,the Islamic armed Abu SalimMartyrs Brigade that captured the Mediterranean coastal city of Darna in Libya swore allegiance to the leader of the Islamic State Baghdadi and directly joined the“Caliphate,which is 1600 kilometers away”.

Just as the Islamic State was born in the Iraq War and grew up in the Syrian civil strife,the instability arc of terrorism in Africa was also activated by the Libyan War in 2011.With the collapse of theGaddafi regime,a large number of armed personnel with advanced weapons and rich practi cal experience dispersed fromLibya to neighboring Algeria,and neighboring African countries such asMali,Niger,andMauritania.These terrorist organizations and extremist forces have also combined with the existing anti-government forces in these countries,and have challenged the state power and territorial integrity of relevant African countries.For example,after the North African branch of Al Qaeda entered northernMali,it joined forces with the Tuareg rebels who had been seeking“liberation of their homeland”and“independence”in the region for decades,and once occupied half of the territory ofMali.

In recent years,after the Islamic State was broken up in Iraq and Syria,many of them went to Africa,such as establishing strongholds in Libya,the Sinai Peninsula of Egypt,and even expanding to West Africa.In the Sahel region of West Africa,terrorist attacks have occurred frequently in recent years,and the security situation has become increasingly severe.The UN Secretary-General's Special Representative for West Africa and the Sahel,Mohamed Chabas,stated in his report to the Security Council on January 10,2019 that West Africa and the Sahel region have become a major focus of anti-terrorism in Africa in recent years.The security situation in the region and the response to the threat of the extremist organization Boko Harammust be supported by the international community.Since 2015,the terrorist forces inMali have spread to neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger under international antiterrorism pressure.According to statistics,several extremist organizations associated with Al Qaeda have caused more than 255 deaths in Burkina Faso in the past few years.Since October 2019 Burkina Faso has had three major terrorist attacks,resulting in the deaths of nearly 100 civilians.Frequent terrorist attacks in the north and east of the country have displaced more than 500,000 people.Due to a significant increase in security incidents,7 out of 13 regions in Burkina Faso have declared a state of emergency.In Niger,despite the large-s cale mobilization and deployment of its security forces,the western and southern regions still face security challenges.[4]

Terrorist attacks have also led to the deterioration of the social and economic development environment,thereby further fostering the soil for terrorism.For example,the Nigerian terrorist organization Boko Haram has continued to wreak havoc in the Lake Chad area in recent years.The rampant terrorist attacks have caused schools to close,basic social services are interrupted,and investment plans are suspended,and lo cal youth cannot obtain development opportunities,which further provides a breeding ground for terrorism.The expansion and spread of terrorist activities in Africa highlights the increasingly severe security environment and counter-terrorism situation faced by relevant African countries and regions and even Africa as a whole.Ambassador Liu Jieyi,Permanent Representative of China to the United Nations,also pointed out at the UN Security Council Conference on Terrorism and Transnational Organized Crime on December 19,2014,that under the influence of multiple factors of history and reality,the politi cal and security situation in parts of Africa is turbulent.Terrorism took the opportunity to infiltrate African countries,seriously threatening regional peace,security and stability,and restricting African economic and social development.Africa's counter-terrorism work is an important part of the global counter-terrorism effort.We must attach great importance to Africa's frontier position in the international fight against terrorism.[5]In July 2019,UN Secretary-General Guterres also made it clear that Africa is increasingly becoming the front line of the global response to terrorism and violent extremism.[6]

Third,the diplomatic and geostrategic risks brought about by the competition of major powers in Africa.With the spread and expansion of terrorist activities in Africa,Western countries such as France and the United States have also increased their military intervention and military presence in Africa.In addition,with the rapid development of ChinaAfrica relations in recent years,Western powers are not reconciled to the loss of their original“sphere of influence”.They began to re-examine the geopoliti cal value of Africa in their global strategy,returning to Africa and holding summits with Africa one after another.As the saying goes,a lean camel is bigger than a horse.Although the politi cal and economic influence of Western powers in Africa has declined in the past ten years,the military influence of France and the United States in Africa still ranks first among countries.France has the most military bases in Africa,while the United States conducts military training and joint exercises in Africa very frequently.

On the one hand,Western powers rely on their military presence and influence in Africa to strengthen their military intervention in African affairs even more confidently.While African countries are facing increasingly severe security and counter-terrorism challenges,although they have the full ideals and ambitions of“African solutions to Africa”,they have to bend down in the face of the skinny reality to strengthen military cooperation with Western countries,and even invite Western countries to help combat armed extremists and rebel forces.Africa itself is also facing a difficult trade-off and game between“independent peacekeeping”and“external intervention”.For example,in recent years,France has actively intervened militarily in the turbulent and crisis areas in Africa.From 2011,it actively participated in the overthrow ofGaddafi in Libya.In 2013,it directly intervened in the civil war inMali and entered the Central African Republic to quell the crisis.In August 2014,the Operation Barkhane was launched and 4,500 soldiers were sent to West Africa to assist the G5 Sahel Joint Force in combating armed extremists and terrorist activities.Compared with France's direct deployment of troops,the United States has gradually strengthened its military presence in Africa by continuously strengthening the deployment of small military bases and activating the“African Command”,focusing more on long-term strategic planning and layout.So far,the U.S.military has established an intelligence network and rapid response base composed of more than ten small air bases in various African countries,and has sent hundreds of special forces to Central Africa to assist Uganda in combating the Lord's Resistance Army rebels.The U.S.military's air base in Djibouti has also repeatedly launched warplanes in Somalia to launch air strikes against Al-Shabaab armed forces.In the 2011 Libyan(Civil)War,although the United States did not take the lead,it also provided vital intelligence,communications,and munitions for NATO's military bombing.

On the other hand,with the rapid development of China-Africa relations in recent years,competition among major powers in Africa has become increasingly fierce,and the so- called“development model”dispute has also surfaced.For example,the United States has hyped up the so- called“resource plundering”and“China threat”by China in Africa in recent years,and falsely called China's development cooperation projects with Africa a“debt trap”.The Trump administration also launched its Africa strategy at the end of 2018,directly naming it to contain the influence of China and Russia in Africa.Secretary of State Mike Pompeo even made it clear that African countries should switch from the“Chinese model”to the“American model”and allow Africa to follow the American economic development and politi cal model.In June 2019,the United States also held the 12th U.S.-Africa Business Summit in Mozambique and announced the launch of the“Prosperous Africa Initiative”in an effort to push back the influence of China and Russia in Africa.At the same time,Russia also sounded the clarion call to return to Africa,trying to strengthen its presence in Africa.In the report“Russia's Return to Africa: Strategy and Prospects”issued by the official Russian think tank,it was clearly stated that“Russia must immediately restore its position in Africa and make Africa a priority for its diplomacy.”In October 2019,Russia held the first Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi,focusing on discussing cooperation between Russia and African countries in economic and security fields.Vladimir Putin believes that RussiaAfrica trade volume is expected to double in the next four to five years,and has decided to hold a Russia-Africa Summit every three years in the future.In addition,Japan also hosted the 7th Tokyo International Conference on African Development(TICAD)in Yokohama in August 2019,with the participation of more than 40 African leaders,promising to provide Africa with a total of about US $30 billion in investment and loans to Africa in the next three years.The plan also proposes to send financial experts to African countries to help them solve their debt problems,reflecting the trend of competition with China.

1.2 Opportunities Conceived in Africa's Geopoliti cal Risks

Although the geopoliti cal risks in Africa in the above three aspects are very serious,opportunities are also conceived in the risks.First of all,from the perspective of African politi cal development and regional security situation,after all,peace,stability and development are becoming the mainstream consensus and common pursuits of African countries.The politi cal stability of African countries is getting better and better.The African countries are becoming more and more politi cally Stable and the regime's ability to repair itself is also constantly increasing.For example,in recent years,the politi cal situations of Ethiopia,Zimbabwe and other countries have been able to restore stability after a short shock.The aforementioned strongman regimes in Algeria and Sudan did not cause violent politi cal turmoil or military conflicts.They basi cally belonged to a relatively smooth transition of power.Even some long-standing inter-state and internal conflicts are developing in a positive direction.For example,not long ago,both parties to the conflict in South Sudan signed a peace agreement and formed a new power-sharing and unity government.The 2019 Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Ethiopia's young Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali because he eased the 20-year hostile relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea,and actively mediated the situation in Sudan.“Corner”has contributed to the peace.Abiy defeated other candidates(such as Donald Trump)to win the Nobel Peace Prize,which also reflects the international community's recognition of Africa's peace and security achievements in 2019.

Secondly,the resilience of African politi cal development has also continued to increase.In the past,we often said that African elections were always accompanied by chaos,but the African countries holding general elections in 2019 are basi cally stable.In particular,major African countries such as South Africa,Nigeria,Botswana,and Mozambique successfully completed the general elections.The re-election of the original incumbent leader ensured the continuity of the regime and policies and broke the African politi cal curse that“every election must be chaotic”in the past.This also shows that African politics has entered a relatively good trajectory.The African economy also continues to maintain a steady growth.The economic growth rate in 2019 is expected to reach 3.8%,which is higher than the average growth rate of 2.6% in the past four years and the average level of world economic growth.In particular,the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement will come into effect in 2019.If it develops smoothly,it will become the world's largest free trade area.It is expected to promote a large market covering 1.2 billion people and a total GDP of US$2.5 trillion.All these can add a strong endogenous impetus to the sustainable growth of the African economy.What's even more rare is that the signing of the Free Trade Area Agreement on the African Continent was completed against the backdrop of anti-globalization countercurrents and the rise of trade protectionism,which highlights the African countries' desire to meet the challenges of international environmental changes with a united force through the process of economic integration.

Finally,the cooperation of major powers in Africa's competitive situation has also emerged,and there is room for continued improvement.In the past year,China,France,Germany and other European countries,China and Japan,South Korea and other developed Asian economies,as well as China and Saudi Arabia,the United Arab Emirates and other rich oil countries in the Middle East have been actively discussing the issue of third-party market cooperation in the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative.Among them,some cooperation has made substantial progress.There is no doubt that China-EU,China-Japan-South Korea cooperation in the construction of the Belt and Road Initiative in Africa will effectively contain the so- called Sino-US“government model dispute”instigated by the United States.In addition,more and more African countries are subjectively inclined to“look eastward”and strengthen relations with Eastern countries(of course not only China,but also South Korea,Singapore,Malaysia,Indonesia,etc.),which objectively helps us unite with other Eastern countries and use the“Eastern Development Model”to compete with the so- called“Sino-American Model”.

1.3 Recommendations for Dealing with Geopoliti cal Risks in Africa

First,China should further strengthen its attention to and support for peace and security issues in Africa,which is based on several factors.1.With the development of the Belt and Road Initiative in Africa,more and more Chinese people are investing in,working and living in Africa.The peace and security of Africa have been closely related to and inseparable from the security of Chinese people and Chinese investment.2.As the world's largest developing country and one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council,China pays attention to and supports Africa's peace and security issues as its responsibility and morality.It has a natural basis for international legitimacy and is the best stage to demonstrate China's responsible major-country diplomacy.3.Promoting peace and stability in Africa and strengthening China-Africa security cooperation have been an important part of China-Africa allround cooperation in recent years.From the China-Africa Policy Document issued in January 2006 to the Beijing Summit of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation held in 2018,China-Africa security cooperation has become an important part of China-Africa relations.However,from the perspective of the specific content of China-Africa security cooperation,in addition to China's increased participation and financial contribution to UN peacekeeping at the multilateral level,at the bilateral level,China's bilateral level mainly includes financial support for AU peacekeeping and cooperation with some African countries.National military training,equipment support,etc.In the future,we should also make more investment and contributions in the“soft”aspects.For example,the negotiation arrangements for conflicts in Africa,the proposal of“Chinese wisdom”on the roadmap to resolve some conflict issues,and the dispatch of more“peace envoys”for peace and security in Africa.

Second,China and Africa should further strengthen the exchange of experience in state governance.The politi cal turmoil in Africa and the curse of“every election must be chaotic”are mostly related to the inability of those in power to solve the problem of“people's livelihood”and insufficient governance capabilities.If the issue of“people's livelihood”is not dealt with properly,the issue of“democracy”will naturally change its nature and become a“false democracy”or“democracy”recognized by some Western democratic research institutions.In recent years,the politi cal turmoil and even the change of regime brought about by the price increase of gasoline or a loaf of bread have eloquently proved the truth that“without people's livelibood,there can be no democracy”.Of course,judging from the current situation,the sharing of China-Africa governance experience is not a socialist regime model of exporting China to Africa.It is to share experience in how to strengthen the building of the ruling party's ability to govern the country,how to strengthen the selection and assessment of cadres,and how to institutionalize anti-corruption work.In addition,how to alleviate poverty,how to solve the“people's livelihood”exchanges in the process of urbanization development,such as employment and the entrepreneurship of small,medium and micro enterprises,and development experience should also be included in the topic of governance.

Finally,multilateral security cooperation between China,the United States and Africa,and China,Europe and Africa should be strengthened,and cooperation should be used to resolve diplomatic and geostrategic risks brought about by competition among major powers in Africa.Since Donald Trump took office in the United States,the cabinet members have mostly been hawks against China.Under the ideology of“America First”and“Making America Great Again”,US foreign policy has shown more power and unilateralism.Dealing with non-establishment presidents like Donald Trump,who are of business origin,seems to have a taste of“eating soft but not hard”,“you are stronger,he is stronger”,“you are soft,he is also soft”.In order to ensure that our large number of the Belt and Road Initiative construction projects in Africa can be successfully completed and achieved sustainable development,it is of course not good for us to“decouple”from the United States and establish stalemate relations with Europe.Therefore,it is recommended to use softness to overcome rigidity and through the third-party market cooperation of the Belt and Road Initiative to reduce and resolve risks.Cooperation can be carried out in various fields such as food security in agriculture,peace and security in counter-terrorism,human resource training in Africa,and capacity building training for civil servants.In short,development without peace and security will be short-lived and fragile development.Helping Africa to develop and create a peaceful and secure environment is not only conducive to Africa and China,but also conducive to the maintenance of world peace.

The strengthening of China-Africa cooperation in defense and security is conducive to enhancing Africa's overall peacekeeping capabilities and is fully in the interests of Africa.China's active participation in the building of peace and security in Africa is a natural fit between Africa's needs and China's wishes and capabilities.Helping Africa to improve its security capabilities is conducive to the improvement of the investment environment in Africa,the interests of all other countries in the world,including China and the United States,who invest in Africa,and are in the global interests of maintaining world peace and security.Even from the perspective of the United States and Europe,the US-led global counter-terrorism war requires the accelerated formation and cooperation of the African rapid reaction force.From the perspective of economic and financial contributions,more than 90% of the African Union's current peace and security missions rely entirely on financial support from the European Union and the United States.China is now actively providing assistance to Africa's standing army and rapid reaction force construction,and has increased its financial support for the African Union's peacekeeping operations.This in itself is not only the performance of a responsible power,but objectively it can also share the financial burden that has long been weighed on the shoulders of the European Union and the United States.Therefore,the Western media has no reason to“pretend to be confused”about China-Africa security cooperation and skepti cally interpret China's establishment of a military logistics support base in Djibouti and other arrangements for ChinaAfrica security cooperation from the Cold War mentality.In short,helping Africa improve its security capabilities should be the common aspiration of the international community,including China,the United States,and the vast majority of African countries,and it is a great thing that conforms to the interests of Africa and the world.