GTI Projects：Trans-Siberian and Trans-Korean Railways Connection
〔俄罗斯〕巴拉尼科娃
As it is known，Russia was not enthusiastic about “Tumen River Area Development Programme” （TRADP）[1]initially as its government was concerned about the threat of possible serious competition to Trans-Siberian Railway and Far Eastern ports. The other major obstacle for cooperation within the project was the difference in levels of development of countries in the region. However，due to changes in the project （which in 2005 was renamed as “Greater Tumen Initiative” （GTI）[2]essence，consistent growth of the economies of the member states and improvement of Russia’s relations with neighboring countries，it became clear that on condition of respecting interests of all participants GTI project can play a significant role in economic development of not only the region covered by the project，but also Russian Far East，especially border areas of Primorye. Recent formation of new international logistic and supply chains as well as implementation of new projects also made Russia take a new look at the Tumen projects. Now we can speak with confidence about the revival of Russia’s interest in forgotten ideas，if to consider GTI in the context of projects of creation of new Eurasian transport corridors.
One of them is “Trans-Siberian （TSR） and Trans-Korean railways （TKR） Connection” project，which would link Korean peninsula with Europe. Reconstruction of 54km stretch of railway，which runs between Khasan and the port of Rajin revived interest in this project recently.
Implementation of this project would allow transporting cargo from Asia to Europe faster and safer than it is currently done by sea. It takes 35-40 days to cover the distance from Asia to Europe by sea while the cargo can be delivered in 17-20 days by railway. Transportation of container from South Korea to Finland by railway would take about 14-16 days as compared to 40-45 days by sea through the Suez Canal.
The idea of connecting Asia and Europe by railway and making TSR an international logistical corridor had been discussed in the Soviet period. Russia’s geographical position predetermined the country’s role as a natural transport bridge linking Europe and Asia. Though less than 1% of transit traffic between Europe and Asia passes by land route now （as compared to 8.5% in the Soviet period），TSR features as a priority route between Europe and Asia in projects of UN and Strategy for Developing Rail Transport in Russia up to 2030. Indeed，it has great potential to play the role of such route on condition of development of relevant infrastructure. Although，according to some experts，transcontinental shipping will not dominate over sea delivery，under appropriate conditions Russian transporters can expect a million TEU of transit cargo，which will make about 2% of projected container traffic between Europe and Asia by 2020.
As for essential part of Asia-Europe transit route-TKR，active steps to construct railways in the Korean Peninsula were taken in the course of Kim Dae-jung historical visit to Pyongyang in where the “North-South Joint Declaration” was signed on June 15，2000. Leaders of two countries-ROK President and DPRK Chairman of National Defence Commission expressed intention to connect South Korean port of Busan with Europe through Seoul-Pyongyang- Sinuiju-China. Russian and North Korean leadership signed the Moscow declaration in 2001，which provided for the creation of a railway transport corridor linking the North and South of the Korean Peninsula with Russia and Europe. Putin and Kim Jong-il also agreed on the Rajin- Khasan development project to link Korea’s TKR and Russia’s TSR. At the same time Russian and DPRK Ministries of Railways signed a cooperation agreement，which provided that the restoration of the Trans-Korean Railway would be conducted according to the so called eastern route，i.e.，railway runs along the coast of the Sea of Japan to the Trans-Siberian Railway through the DPRK border crossing point in Tumangang region and Russia’s Khasan.
The reconstruction was started in the South and North Korean sector of the demilitarized zone （DMZ） simultaneously on September 18，2002. After the construction of the 24 km stretch of railway in the demilitarized zone （12 km on each side） an official ceremony of connection of South and North Korea railways was held on June 14，2003.
The first trilateral meeting of the leaders of Russia，DPRK and ROK railway administrations was held in 2006. The participants agreed to start modernization of whole TSR with the reconstruction of the railway section between North Korea’s port Rajin and Russia’s station Khasan. Two years later “RZD” President Vladimir Yakunin and DPRK Railways Minister Kim Yong Sam signed an agreement on cooperation to implement the Khasan-Rajinpilot project. Reconstruction of the Khasan-Rajin line was successfully completed in autumn of 2013.
Along with Russia’s efforts to link TKR and TSR，China took active measures as well. China rented out piers at the North Korean port of Rajin and began their reconstruction in 2008. Now Chinese companies operate two piers at the port，for coal export and for containers. Accordingly，the railway line from the port of Rajin will connect it to North-Eastern China and become a part of the already mentioned Eurasian transport corridor in the future. China is also actively implementing its strategy of a “New Silk Road” （the Second Eurasian Continental Bridge）.
There are several possible routes linking TKR and TSR through the territory of DPRK were considered. Two of them are particularly noteworthy. One of them is Tumangang/Khasan or so-called “eastern” route （ROK-DPRK-RF-EU）. This route connects TKR with TSR via Rajin，Tumangang，Khasan and Ussurijsk. According to another，“western” or Manzhouli/Zabaikalsk route （ROK - DPRK-PRC-RF-EU） TKR runs through the territory of China and meets TSR near Russian Chita city. There is also the third option providing railway running through the territory of Mongolia.
The first route is promoted by Russia and supported by DPRK，the second one-by China and ROK. Russia is interested in increasing flow of cargo on its TSR and developing economy in its Far Eastern areas. If any other route option of Trans-Korean railway is implemented，it will cause inevitable loss of Far-Eastern ports’ transit potential and reduce the volume of container traffic. Implementation of project option proposed by Russia，by contrast，will improve Russian economic presence in the region and its integration into regional processes and increase possible transportation revenues. As for DPRK，it would rather prefer to develop economy and transport infrastructure than to have transit revenues only. DPRK is interested in railway project option proposed by Russia as in this case railway runs through the coastal areas of North Korea and can produce positive economical impact on these areas. Moreover，cargo transportation through the reconstructed Rajin - Khasan railway line will contribute to the development of Rason，DPRK trade and economic zone.
China is interested in getting access to the sea for its landlocked northeastern provinces. Railway passing through its territory would increase export of products and natural resources from these provinces. China has its own transport and logistics route beginning from North Korean ports on the coast of the Sea of Japan，passing through the territories of DPRK，China and Kazakhstan and going further to Europe. The only possible option of connecting railwayswith TSR for China is that excluding Eastern Siberia and Russian Far East. Chinese “western” route of TSR also seems the most advantageous economically for ROK. ROK cargo turnover with China is much higher than one with Russia. Moreover，a small section of the railroad need to be reconstructed on “western” route，while “eastern” route implementation requires completing construction of many large sections thus increasing significantly the cost of the project. In addition，according to the route proposed by China，the railway runs near Kaesong industrial complex and thus can promote its development.
Each of the routes has its own advantages and disadvantages. Option proposed by China involves the use of existing line through the North Korean Sinuiju station. The distance is 8437km from Dandong to Moscow or 9382km from Busan to Moscow （while total distance from Khasan to Moscow is 9，437 km or from Busan to Moscow is 10737km）. So，the length of the route，proposed by China is smaller as compared with Russian one and makes the terms of delivery shorter. Only small areas of the railroad tracks need to be restored and it requires fewer costs than the same work in other areas. Nevertheless，the roads of north-east China are overloaded and Monzhouli/Zabaikalsk border station is often crowded. The route also crosses too many national borders. In the case of road passing through Xinjiang some problems with transportation safety can occur. Moreover，some political problems can occur as none of the interested countries （DPRK，ROK，RF） is interested in strengthening China’s influence on North Korea，which is unavoidable in the case of that option implementation.
Route proposed by Russia is not quite advantageous economically at first sight. Its implementation will require，among other things，the development of railway infrastructure on the eastern coast of ROK，where less industrialized areas are located. Russia will also need major investments for modernization of its TSR and ports infrastructure. Currently railway crossing points of Siberia and Russian Far East on its borders with China and DPRK are underdeveloped，while China，for example，has several crossing points on its border with DPRK，including international one-Dandong-Sinuiju. One of the advantages of the eastern route is that cargos pass long distance without crossing national borders and according to a single transport law.
Although the economic benefits of the Russian option are uncertain，at least for now，its implementation has great political importance for all participants. First of all，Russia would share the burden of responsibility with China for the settlement of the situation on the Korean peninsula. At the same time DPRK will be involved into international trade and economic links network that will ensure its growth and stability. Construction of Trans-Korean Railway can contribute to the establishment of economic cooperation between the countries of Korean Peninsula and prepare the ground for future North and South reunification，which will stabilize the situation in the whole region.
TSR and TKR connection project in any case will produce positive political impact on Korean Peninsula and the whole Northeast Asia. Connected railways will not only increase cargo traffic and help to settle economic relations between DPRK and ROK，but will also make delivery of goods from Asia to Europe more diversified and convenient.
Taking into account mutual interests of Russia，DPRK，China and ROK in the project implementation and regional stability，all countries should see two options of Trans-Korean railway not as the cause for rivalry and competition，but as new chance for cooperation and collaboration in the region. Naturally，none of the countries will abandon its interests. But the countries can try to agree on a compromise option using both railway routes，which could be operated simultaneously for different purposes. For example，“eastern” route could be used for Korean and international transit to Europe while “western” one could meet the needs of growing ROK-PRC trade.
Relations between China and Russia are constantly developing and strengthening，so two countries can find a way of mutually beneficial using new transportation opportunities. It is symbolic that dual-gauge track was laid on the way to the port of Rajin：1 435 mm is a standard gauge in Korea and China，1520 mm is Russian standard.
At the same time supporters of both TKR routes should consider such factors as inter-Korean relations and interests of third parties which can significantly affect the project implementation. The prerequisite for functioning of planned transport corridors is connection of ROK and DPRK railways. A number of measures are required to modernize and develop DPRK railway infrastructure as well. Another significant condition for the TKR project implementation is the development of Tumangang，the area via which the railway runs.
TKR project in its final form makes no sense without the development of Tumen area and its transport infrastructure. Completion of construction and putting into operation of the railway section between Rajin and Khasan station is without doubts a major achievement. However，to take full advantage of a new line it is necessary to be linked with TSR，which requires serious upgrade of the 238 km section between the Khasan and Baranovski stations. Due to the fact that Russian government on the proposal of RAO “RZD gave priority to the BAM-2 project with initial cost of about 600 billion roubles in July，further reconstruction of TKR sections can be moved to the background for uncertain time. Russia is unlikely to be able to run simultaneously two major railway projects. Therefore，the only way to bring railwaynetwork in compliance with modern requirements and to use it for the benefit of GTI projects is to attract private investments.
The development of relations between countries and their common interests provide favorable conditions for the implementation of multilateral economic projects，including those that will contribute to the development of Tumen area. However，Russia would prefer to be better informed about the plans of China and ROK connected with the projects of “New Silk Road” and “Eurasian Initiative” respectively，as well as involvement of logistic schemes under GTI into these megaprojects. Sine qua non for Russia’s participation in GTI projects has always been guarantee of securing interests of all parties involved. Greater transparency in actions and relations between GTI member countries will create the prerequisites for equal participation and improve Tumen River projects implementation.
[1] The idea of developing the Tumen area to a golden triangle by creation of free economic zone on the borders of China，DPRK and Russia and construction of a new transport artery to link Northeast Asia with Europe was proposed in 1990. RADP was launched by UNDP as a regional cooperation programme in 1991. Russia first signed a memorandum of cooperation in the framework of Tumen program in December 1995.
[2] Member countries- China，DPRK，Mongolia，ROK & Russia-agreed to extend initial Agreements for another ten years. China stopped insisting on construction of a port in the mouth of the Tumen river.