2 Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East

The Middle East is the region that has witnessed the most serious proliferation of WMDs in the contemporary world, where more states are not willing to abide by or strictly abide by the Chemical Weapons Convention and Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty than anywhere else.Before Syria chemical attack in 2013,there were only five states in the world that did not join the Chemical Weapons Convention,among which two were from the Middle East: Egypt and Syria (the other three are North Korea, South Sudan, and Angola). In the two states that had signed the convention but not yet approved it, one (Israel) is located in the Middle East and the other (Myanmar) is in Southeast Asia.

Compared with chemical weapons proliferation, the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Middle East is even more serious. Until now, Israel still refuses to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.Although Israel,Egypt,and Iran have already joined the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty,they have not approved it.Israel is reluctant to waive the development of nuclear weapons and is generally considered to possess a considerable amount of them, which, to a large extent, has prompted some Western Asian and Northern African states to follow suit. Until recently, Iran and Libya have refused to acknowledge the legality of the existence of Israel; therefore the nuclear or suspected nuclear weapons of the two states are directly relevant to their national security strategy. That is to say, they are construed as an instrument to balance Israel's nuclear weapons. To some extent, the secret nuclear program of Egypt in history was also closely related to Israel. Furthermore, there is evidence that the enrichment technology of Pakistan has already been transferred to Iran and, when Pakistan decided to develop nuclear weapons, its former president, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, claimed that Pakistan's nuclear weapons would be the nuclear weapons of the whole Islamic world. In addition, Iraq, both during and after the Cold War, has repeatedly tried to develop nuclear weapons and Syria has also suspected of developing nuclear weapons.

The reason that the proliferation of WMDs in the Middle East is so serious is that most of the states in this region are seriously in lack of a sense of security. Although it is widely believed that Israel possesses nuclear weapons, it is probably the one that has the strongest sense of insecurity in the region. This is closely related to the Jewish history, especially the suffering of Jews in WWII and the strong opposition of the surrounding nations against Israel due to its Zionism and expansion. In view of the intense hostility from the external world, the development of nuclear weapons can become the foundation of the security strategy of Israel. Due to the paradox of the traditional international security, Israel's military expansion, in turn, becomes the source of insecurity of its rival states. In particular, the fact that Israel is developing nuclear weapons will force other states in this region to develop their own WMDs, chemical or nuclear, to balance Israel.

To some extent, both the nuclear weapons program of Libya and the suspected nuclear weapons program of Iran can be used to contain Israel. Libya had long been suspected of developing nuclear weapons which were not just for self-defense. The existence and expansion of Israel resulted in uneasiness on Libya's part which thus needed some means to contain Israel. If the US had not taken advantage of the 9/11 terrorist attacks to start the Iraqi War, Libya would probably still be developing its nuclear weapons. The US military strikes on Iraq, which were based neither on facts nor the international law, had serious consequences on both Iraq and the US, but the by-product — Libya abandoned its nuclear weapons — is beyond expectation. However, eight years after Libya renounced its nuclear weapons, the Gaddafiregime collapsed due to foreign military intervention, which was a warning to North Korea and other states that were inclined to develop nuclear weapons. Whether out of security concerns or political excuses, it is impossible for North Korea and Iran to abandon their nuclear weapons. North Korea may, at most, freeze its nuclear program, which must be achieved after it gets a worthy swap, while Iran will, at least maintain a considerable scale of “nuclear programs for civil use”.

Iran is another state in the Middle East which is suspected of developing nuclear weapons.As a non-nuclear contracting state of Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty,Iran is allowed to develop nuclear energy for civil use. As a precondition, Iran must put its civil nuclear energy under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and provide adequate transparency for the IAEA. But the problem is that Iran has secretly developed some underground nuclear facilities, in particular, the facilities for uranium enrichment, and didn't report to the IAEA. Therefore, the IAEA board asked Iran to open the facilities and make necessary explanations. Being void of Iran's full cooperation, the UNSC urged Iran to stop uranium enrichment. However, Iran turned a deaf ear to it: it not only refused the request, but also expanded the scale and increased the density of uranium enrichment, which created the “Iran nuclear issue”that drew a lot of attention from the international community.

The reason for Iran's civil nuclear energy program is the lack of sufficient ability to refine petroleum. What's more, Iran believes that it should possess advanced energy technology, in particular, nuclear energy technology. However, even in the field of civil nuclear energy, Iran's clandestine nuclear program has violated the safeguards agreement it signed with the IAEA. There are two reasons for the violation. First, Iran is worried that its civil nuclear energy facilities which are totally legitimate may be attacked by Israel. Israel once launched the so-called “Babylon” military actions against Iraq's two nuclear reactors located in Tammuz (also called Osiris) in 1981. So, Iran would be wary of any possible air strikes from Israel when it develops its own nuclear weapons. Second, if Iran's secret nuclear program has real military purpose, it would be most in line with its security interests to carry out the underground nuclear research waiting for breakthroughs in due time.

No matter what the Iranian government actually thought about, after the underground nuclear program was disclosed, Iran should make an after-event report to the IAEA, and put all its nuclear activities, including uranium enrichment, under the supervision of the IAEA. Because Iran refused to disclose any information on its high-speed centrifuges used in the uranium enrichment and took various means to conceal its non-cooperation attitude, the UNSC repeatedly asked Iran to stop uranium enrichment. However, up until now, the bans have not been observed.

Iran's defiance against the UNSC not only suggests that the contemporary international community lacks a real authority and the existing international system hasn't been universally accepted, but also shows that the international system has failed to take into consideration different demands of its members and provide them with adequate public security and economic goods. The psychological logic behind Iran's nuclear program is obvious. The international community, under the leadership of several great powers, is more tolerable for Israel's nuclear weapons program than for that of other states, which will definitely damage the balance of power in the region. In addition, before nuclear states completely agree to ban and destroy their nuclear weapons, the current non-proliferation mechanism is unfair to those states that attempt to develop their own nuclear capacities. It's far from certain as for whether the nuclear states will destroy all their nuclear weapons. That the US-led Western states launched wars against other member states of the international community such as Iraq without the UN authorization and gave their acquiescence to Israel's nuclear weapons program has caused a huge inequity of security rights and liabilities among different states. When those great powers adhere to discriminative policies for the sake of their own security interest, other states will absolutely try every means to maximize their interests. This is why it is difficult to solve the nuclear proliferation problem in the Middle East and the whole world.