总结
伴随着出口导向型增长的行将结束和由不断增大的国内不平等与近来的高经常账户盈余的冲突，中国需要的是更进一步的变革性增长，这一变革性增长将会维持它的赶超步伐并解决其内部和外部的冲突。一个不可避免的、即将发生的变革来自刘易斯转折点。刘易斯转折点的到来将会加速真实工资率增长，因此将进一步增长的成果分散化并导致企业储蓄份额下降，因为真实工资率的增长会提高总收入中家庭所占有的份额。这进而会减少总储蓄和经常账户盈余。当然，这同时会要求进行成本高昂的调整，因为正如前一节所分析的，增长将会放缓，对一直以来高效的和富有竞争性的轻工业部门的新增劳动供给将逐渐减少。并且，中国的增长带给全球经济的净收益也会下降。然而，如果如某些人所认为的那样（Garnaut, 2010），这一转型是迫切的，它能够带来的不幸中的希望是来自国内外的政治压力减弱了，对放弃迄今为止成功的市场导向的政策体制的激励减少了。
但是仍然存在维持整体增长率和实现有序转型的问题。对于后者，韩国和中国台湾都进行了有序的经济转型，远离了通过劳动密集型出口进行的劳动力转型。二者都发生了倾向自由民主的政治转型，这以城市中产阶级成为多数为开端。当然，它们得到了与中国本身的迅速增长相关的激励。日本最初的转型是有序的，从1970年的石油和商品危机中复苏过来，但是随后整个1980年代和1990年代早期的政策错误打破了这种秩序。日本的相对自由民主没有能够发现和解决这些问题，尽管身边伴随着中国的增长。现在，中国必须做同样的事情，但是是在缺乏与周边增长相联系的外部刺激的情况下。
至于缓和增长的减速，需要新的变革性增长来源以避免快速的甚至可能是破坏性的减速。本章通过对一个明确考虑了SOEs寡头垄断行为的具有17个部门的中国经济模型的模拟和一个捕捉到了基本的经济结构——具有很大竞争性的轻工业出口部门和寡头垄断的重工业部门以及以国有企业为主导的服务业部门——的数据库对这一问题进行了处理。结果表明进一步的变革性增长来源确实存在，但是要开发利用这些来源，中国政府必须对其进行深挖和进行产业改革。这些产业改革要减少当前集中了经济收益的垄断租，与此同时欢迎FDI进入迄今仍受到保护的服务业。从这些产业改革中能够获得的好处是巨大的，不仅包括最终使真实人均收入向西方国家收敛，还包括减少了的不平等和更强大的、更多外部参与的重工业和服务业。
尽管中国政府自1980年代早期以来经常面临政治上和经济上的挑战，而且迄今为止一直表现得很有效，但在中国进行这些改革在政治上也将是难以完成的。到目前为止，中国增长的基本面看起来都不错，继续转型的障碍也为政府及其各部门所知晓（The Economist, 2011）。对更多消费的持续的外部呼吁本质上是排外的——相当于要求中国减少投资和令其经济表现得更差。一个强大的中国经济和一个平滑的经济转型是符合全球利益的，前提是来自西方的政治压力要得到克制。与此同时，就学习日本经验和抵抗要求采取对国内有害的经济政策变化的外部压力上，中国处在更有优势的地位。
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（张川川 译）