总结
本章认为，由于储蓄下降超过投资并且人民币仍将持续升值，在未来10年中国的经常账户盈余将趋于从2000年代中期占GDP的5%～10%下降到GDP的1%。在近10年中，那些在过去10年中引起中国储蓄率上升的因素，诸如一次性的生产率增进和富余的劳动供给都将减弱。由于处于中国早期赶超阶段的大规模的基础设施工程和技术升级，投资尽管可能会减缓但是仍然会保持稳健。因此，就趋势而言，中国未来的储蓄—投资平衡将会收缩。政策的放松将会在同一个方向发挥作用。政府可能放松对服务业的管制，加强社会保障体系，支持国家资助的养老金和发放国有行业的红利收入，同时为官员提供激励以提供服务而不是进行基础建设。
在转向更平衡的增长模式上，汇率能够扮演支持性的角色。正在发生的人民币真实汇率升值提供了信号表明在非可贸易部门进行投资有利可图。在过去的七年间人民币真实汇率一直在升值，真实有效汇率以大约每年4%～5%的速度升值，这源于相对于贸易伙伴货币人民币名义汇率每年2%～3%的升值以及中国相对于其贸易伙伴更快的通货膨胀。基于单位劳动力成本而非消费者价格的新的估计表明了更高的年均7%～8%的真实汇率升值。没有理由认为这一真实汇率的升值不会继续。工资和价格的相对上涨，以及名义货币升值会继续存在。
展望未来，更少的经常账户盈余和货币升值将会使人更能感受到人民币交易的双向风险。伴随着中国向更平衡经济的转型，这种感受会为金融自由化和更多的货币自主性提供更有利的背景。
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（张川川 译）