中国—东盟研究(2018年第三辑 总第七辑)
上QQ阅读APP看书,第一时间看更新

六 结论

为了最大限度地扩大参与“一带一路”倡议的受益范围,柬埔寨必须弥补自身不足,降低相关风险。首先,柬埔寨必须强制性地解决裙带关系和腐败问题,否则,“一带一路”倡议的资金可能无法实现其可持续的目标,反而会阻碍柬埔寨的发展。其次,柬埔寨必须有效地提高其利用人力资源的能力,从而保持稳定的经济增长。再次,柬埔寨必须实现贷款来源的多样化,减少对某一特定捐助者的过度依赖,这可能对其外交政策的选择产生明显影响。最后,柬埔寨应平衡与中国、东盟成员国和其他超级大国的“平等”关系。国际社会认为柬埔寨与中国过于亲近,由此产生了各种负面的猜想。平衡与其他大国的关系将确保柬埔寨保持其中立政策,避免落入任何国家的势力范围。

另外,中国要保持其作为可信赖的外国投资者和柬埔寨战略伙伴的声誉,就应该更加重视其投资行为对基层人民的影响,而不仅仅是关注与伙伴国家政府之间的关系。在提出任何项目之前,应先进行影响评估和可行性研究。中国必须从普通民众和当地社区的角度出发,努力提高华人声誉和华人聚居地的形象。

“一带一路”倡议将在减小东盟区域发展不平衡以及加强整个区域的互联互通方面发挥至关重要的作用。然而,正如许多批评人士所警告的那样,这种巨额资金的投资也可能对东盟与东盟的中心地位和团结造成影响。例如,马蒙·莫仲达博士建议,为了避免陷入困境,东盟必须统一立场,在南海和其他核心问题上协商,达成一致。中国必须采取措施促使东盟对中国建立信任和信心,重申其在发展互联互通的基础上促进贸易的和平意图。[69]中国还必须清晰明确地阐述现有的和新的倡议,如“一带一路”倡议、澜沧江—湄公河合作等,以避免他国对中国增进人类互利和发展的善意产生偏见和误解。为此,中国需要通过协商对话加强公众认识,并应扩大此类“二轨外交”[70],以便在各种主题事项上汇集更具区域包容性的意见。

Cambodia and the Belt and Road Initiative:Opportunities and Challenges

Pich Charadine

Abstract Since its establishment in 2013,the Chinese grand scheme,the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),has since then become an enormous landmark global-wide initiative that would boost the essence of globalization into an unprecedented level of global integration.Cambodia and all other ASEAN member states are the partner countries among other 65 states from different regions.Cambodia is one of the BRI’s most supportive partners who are striving intensively to cooperate with China in transforming the development projects into a significant output.Despite all those remarkable progress and opportunities,a few crucial challenges shall not be neglected and ought to be responded with caution.This paper will assess the SWOT analysis of Cambodia in the context of the BRI and discuss the prospects of the BRI toward ASEAN Community-building vis-à-vis China-ASEAN cooperation.

Key Words Cambodia;BRI;ASEAN Community;China-ASEAN Cooperation

Author Pich Charadine,Senior Fellow and the Coordinator of the Global Center for Mekong Studies(GCMS-Cambodia Center)of the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace(CICP),Adjunct Lecturer in the Department of Political Science at Zaman University(currently Paragon International University)Cambodia.


[1] 陈园园,广西大学中国—东盟研究院柬埔寨研究所,研究助理。

[2] 中国国家信息中心:《“一带一路”2017年度大数据分析报告》,http://www.sic.gov.cn/News/553/9030.htm,登录时间:2018年8月1日。

[3] Wu Jiao and Zhang Yunbi,“Xi Proposes a‘new Silk Road’ with Central Asia”,China Daily,September 8,2013,http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/ china/2013xivisitcenterasia/2013-09/08/content_16952228_2.htm,登录时间:2018年8月7日。

[4] Chaturvedy and Rajeev Ranjan,“The 21st Century Maritime Silk Road”,Orfonline,February 10,2017,https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-21st-century-maritime-silk-road/,登录时间:2018年8月1日。

[5] 中华人民共和国国家发展和改革委员会:Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road,March 28,2015,http://en.ndrc.gov.cn/newsrelease/201503/t20150330_669367.html,登录时间:2018年8月5日。

[6] V.Chheang,“Cambodia embraces China’s Belt and Road Initiative”,ISEAS Perspective,2017.

[7] Suos,Y.and Kem,R.,“Belt and Road Initiative and Cambodia’s Development”,2018.

[8] Kuch,Naren,“Annual Infrastructure Spending Must Top $500M,PM Says”,The Cambodia Daily,April 7,2017,https://www.cambodiadaily.com/news/annual-infrastructure-spending-must-top-500m-pm-says-127700/,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[9] H.E.Ms.Eat Sophea,22 June,2017,“Cambodia’s Policy toward the Belt and Road Initiatives”,In Outcome Report:Workshop on Overview and Outlook of Cooperation between Cambodia and China under Belt and Road Initiatives,CICP.

[10] Sum and Manet,“China Gives $2 Billion for Roads,Bridge”,Khmer Times,17 October,2016,https://www.khmertimeskh.com/news/30849/china-gives--2-billion-for-roads--bridge/,登录时间:2018年8月1日。

[11] Sok Chan,“Aviation sector sees more than $3 billion investment in last 20 years”,Khmer Times,5 February,2018,http://www.khmertimeskh.com/50106480/aviation-sector-sees-3-billion-investment-last-20-years/,登录时间:2018年5月1日。

[12] Hor Kimsay,Brendan O’Bryne,“Government plans one of the world’s biggest airports in Kandal”,The Phnom Penh Post,15 January,2018,http://www.phnompenhpost.com/business/government-plans-one-worlds-biggest-airports-kandal,登录时间:2018年5月1日。

[13] Meng,Siv.,“Timeframe Set for Siem Reap Airport Construction”,Phnom Penh Post,17 August,2017,https://www.phnompenhpost.com/post-property/timeframe-set-siem-reap-airport-construction,登录时间:2018年8月7日。

[14] Meng,Siv.,“Timeframe Set for Siem Reap Airport Construction”,Phnom Penh Post,17 August,2017,https://www.phnompenhpost.com/post-property/timeframe-set-siem-reap-airport-construction,登录时间:2018年8月7日。

[15] Chheang Vannarith,“China and investments it has made in Cambodia”,Khmer Times,28 July,2017,http://www.khmertimeskh.com/5075376/china-investments-made-cambodia/,登录时间:2018年8月7日。

[16] Chheang Vannarith,“China and investments it has made in Cambodia”,Khmer Times,28 July,2017,http://www.khmertimeskh.com/5075376/china-investments-made-cambodia/,登录时间:2018年8月7日。

[17] Aaron Larson,“Cambodia’s Largest Hydropower Plant Begins Operation”,POWER Magazine,1 March,2015,https://www.powermag.com/cambodias-largest-hydropower-plant-begins-operation/,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[18] Chan Sok,“Hydropower Dam to Open Early”,Khmer Times,12 July,2017,https://www.khmertimeskh.com/news/40152/hydropower-dam-to-open-early/,登录时间:2018年8月3日。

[19] Chheang Vannarith,“China and investments it has made in Cambodia”,Khmer Times,28 July,2017,http://www.khmertimeskh.com/5075376/china-investments-made-cambodia/,登录时间:2018年8月3日。

[20] Kimsay Hor,“MoUs signed in hopes of boosting rice exports to China”,The Phnom Penh Post,http://www.phnompenhpost.com/business/mous-signed-hopes-boosting-rice-exports-china-0,登录时间:2018年8月3日。

[21] Vannak Chea,“New Deal with Chinese firm to boost fish,mango exports”,Khmer Times,5 February,2018,http://www.khmertimeskh.com/50106481/new-deal-chinese-firm-boost-fish-mango-exports/,登录时间:2018年8月3日。

[22] Sokhorng Cheng,“China order lifts rice imports for 2017”,The Phnom Penh Post,2 January,2018,http://www.phnompenhpost.com/business/china-order-lifts-rice-imports-2017,登录时间:2018年8月3日。

[23] Kimsay Hor,“Official exchange rate launched for yuan,riel”,The Phnom Penh Post,28 Sept ember,2017,http://www.phnompenhpost.com/business/official-exchange-rate-launched-yuan-riel,登录时间:2018年8月3日。

[24] Kimsay Hor,“Deal for yuan trade with China in works”,The Phnom Penh Post,http://www.phnompenhpost.com/business/deal-yuan-trade-china works?utm_source=Phnompenh+Post+ Main+List&utm_campaign=0989a6b30a-20180109&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_690109a91f-0989a6b30a-62212773,登录时间:2018年8月3日。

[25] Sokhorng Cheng,O’Byrne Brendan,“Spike in Chinese visitors drives tourism boom”,The Phnom Penh Post,25 January,2018,http://www.phnompenhpost.com/business/spike-chinese-visitors-drives-tourism-boom,登录时间:2018年8月3日。

[26] Chea Vannak,“More than 2 million Chinese tourists expected by 2020”,Khmer Times,1 November,2017,http://www.khmertimeskh.com/5088631/2-million-chinese-tourists-expected-2020/,登录时间:2018年8月3日。

[27] Chheang Vannarith,“China and investments it has made in Cambodia”,Khmer Times,28 July 2017,http://www.khmertimeskh.com/5075376/china-investments-made-cambodia/,登录时间:2018年8月3日。

[28] Samdech Techo Hun Sen,“Remark Samdech Techo Hun Sen at the 2017 Cambodia-China Trade and Tourism Promotion Forum”,Press and Quick Reaction Unit,16 May,2017,http://pressocm.gov.kh/en/archives/5924,登录时间:2018年8月1日。

[29] Geoff De.Freitas,“China-Backed Cambodian Deep-Water Port Emerges as BRI Focal Point”,HKTDC Research,7 February,2018,http://economists-pick-research.hktdc.com/business-news/article/International-Market-News/China-Backed-Cambodian-Deep-Water-Port-Emerges-as-BRI-Focal-Point/imn/en/1/1X000000/1X0ACZHM.htm,登录时间:2018年8月5日。

[30] “Chinese-invested Sihanoukville industrial zone in Cambodia eyes 300 factories expansion”,Xinhua Net,18 November,2016,http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-11/18/c_135839598.htm,登录时间:2018年8月3日。

[31] Paul Millar,“The Future of Cambodia:Manufacturing”,Southeast Asia Globe Magazine,6 November,2017,http://sea-globe.com/cambodia-future-manufacturing/,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[32] Nathan P.Southern,“The Future of Cambodia:Tourism”,Southeast Asia Globe Magazine,20 February,2018,http://sea-globe.com/cambodia-future-tourism/,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[33] “Oil and Gas Resources”,Open Development Cambodia(ODC),https://opendevelopmentcambodia.net/topics/oil-and-gas-resources/,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[34] “About Cambodia”,UNDP in Cambodia,http://www.kh.undp.org/content/cambodia/en/home/countryinfo.html,登录时间:2018年8月2日。

[35] Chan Sok,“Foreign Remittances Grow to $1.5 Billion”,Khmer Times,9 November,2016,https://www.khmertimeskh.com/news/31820/foreign-remittances-grow-to--1-5-billion/,登录时间:2018年8月2日。

[36] “Cambodia Corruption Report”,Business Anti-Corruption Portal,7 August,2017,https://www.business-anti-corruption.com/country-profiles/cambodia/,登录时间:2018年8月7日。

[37] Chheang Vannarith,“Cambodia Needs to Be Competitive”,Khmer Times,28 November,2016,https://www.khmertimeskh.com/news/32463/cambodia-needs-to-be-competitive/,登录时间:2018年8月7日。

[38] “Cambodia-Share of Economic Sectors in the Gross Domestic Product 2017 | Statistic”,Statista,7 August,2018,https://www.statista.com/statistics/438728/share-of-economic-sectors-in-the-gdp-in-cambodia/,登录时间:2018年8月7日。

[39] “Rectangular Strategy Phase III”,Royal Government of Cambodia,Phnom Penh:RGC,2013.

[40] “Rectangular Strategy Phase III”,Royal Government of Cambodia.

[41] Phak Seangly,“Developed’ by 2050:PM”,The Phnom Penh Post,7 June,2013,https://www.phnompenhpost.com/national/‘developed’-2050-pm,登录时间:2018年8月1日。

[42] “Cambodia Industrial Development Policy 2015-2025”,Council of Minister,6 March 2015.

[43] “Cambodia Launches Industrial Development Policy for next 10 Years”,Khmer Times,August 26,2015,https://www.khmertimeskh.com/news/14961/cambodia-launches-industrial-development-policy-for-next-10-years/,登录时间:2018年8月1日。

[44] “Cambodia Industrial Development Policy 2015-2025”,Business ASEAN,30 September,2015,http://www.businessinasean.com/en/latest-updates/legal/143-cambodia-industrial-deve lopment-policy-2015-2025.html,登录时间:2018年8月1日。

[45] K.Heng,S.Po,“Cambodia and China’s Belt and Road Initiative:Opportunities,challenges and future directions”,UC Occasional Paper Series,1(2),p.1.

[46] Kali Kotoski,“Kingdom’s Debt Grows to Nearly $6 Billion”,The Phnom Penh Post,20 April,2017,https://www.phnompenhpost.com/business/kingdoms-debt-grows-nearly-6-billion,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[47] Kali Kotoski,“Kingdom’s Debt Grows to Nearly $6 Billion”,The Phnom Penh Post,20 April,2017,https://www.phnompenhpost.com/business/kingdoms-debt-grows-nearly-6-billion,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[48] “Interview:Who Wants Cambodia to be a Province of China?”Radio Free Asia,7 March,2018,https://www.rfa.org/english/news/cambodia/china-debt-03072018162337.html,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[49] Veasna Var,Po.Sovinda,“Cambodia,Sri Lanka and the China Debt Trap”,East Asia Forum,March 17,2017,http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2017/03/18/cambodia-sri-lanka-and-the-china-debt-trap/,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[50] Jonathan E.Hillman,“China’s Belt and Road Initiative:Five Years Later”,Center for Strategic and International Studies,31 July,2018,https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-five-years-later-0,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[51] Samithi Sok,“Pros and Cons of China's Belt and Road Plan”,Khmer Times,27 June,2017,https://www.khmertimeskh.com/news/39680/pros-and-cons-of-china---s-belt-and-road-plan/,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[52] “Environmental Experts Voice Concern About Effects of Dam Projects in Cambodia”,Radio Free Asia,16 March,2017,https://www.rfa.org/english/news/cambodia/environmental-experts-voice-concern-about-effects-of-dam-projects-in-cambodia-03162017163740.html,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[53] “China-built Dam in Cambodia Set to Destroy Livelihoods of 45,000”,South China Morning Post,19 September,2015,https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/article/1858974/china-built-dam-cambodia-set-destroy-livelihoods-45000,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[54] “New Dam in Cambodia ‘would Destroy Mekong’”,Bangkok Post,18 May,2018,https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asean/1468045/study-china-backed-dam-in-cambodia-to-destroy-mekong,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[55] Cheng Sokhorng,“Probe into Chinese Investment to Sihanoukville Still Idle”,The Phnom Penh Post,1 March,2018,https://www.phnompenhpost.com/business/probe-chinese-investment-sihanoukville-still-idle,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[56] Sabam Siagian,“Is Phnom Penh Fiasco the Beginning of End of ASEAN?”GMA News Online,17 July,2012,http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/opinion/content/265660/is-phnom-penh-fiasco-the-beginning-of-end-of-asean/story/,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[57] Manuel Mogato,“ASEAN Deadlocked on South China Sea,Cambodia Blocks Statement”,Reuters,26 July,2016,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-ruling-asean/asean-deadlocked-on-south-china-sea-cambodia-blocks-statement-idUSKCN1050F6,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[58] Veasna Var、Po.Sovinda,“The Challenges Facing Cambodian Foreign Policy”,IPP REVIEW,20 July,2017,http://ippreview.com/index.php/Blog/single/id/509.html,登录时间:2018年8月6日。

[59] “ASEAN Leaders Adopt Master Plan on Connectivity 2025”,ASEAN | ONE VISION ONE IDENTITY ONE COMMUNITY,September 21,2016,http://asean.org/asean-leaders-adopt-master-plan-on-connectivity-2025/,登录时间:2018年8月9日。

[60] Brian Wang,“China BRI Will Boost ASEAN Infrastructure and Economic Growth”,Next Big Future,6 May,2018,https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2018/05/china-bri-will-boost-asean-infrastructure-and-economic-growth.html,登录时间:2018年8月9日。

[61] Xiang Bo,“ASEAN to Benefit Most from Belt and Road Initiative:Philippine Finance Chief”,Xinhua English News,http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-11/20/c_136 766730.htm,登录时间:2018年8月9日。

[62] Julie Zhu,“ASEAN-focused China Fund Raising up to $3 Billion for Silk Road”,Reuters,23 January,2018,https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-private-equity/asean-focused-china-fund-raising-up-to-3-billion-for-silk-road-projects-sources-idUSKBN1FC0SE,登录时间:2018年8月5日。

[63] Johanna Son,“Laos and Cambodia:The China Dance”,ASEAN News,30 September,2017,http://www.aseannews.net/laos-cambodia-china-dance/,登录时间:2018年8月5日。

[64] “China,ASEAN to Formulate Strategic Partnership Vision toward 2030”,China Daily,13 November,2017,http://www.china.org.cn/world/2017-11/14/content_41887180.htm,登录时间:2018年8月5日。

[65] “China-ASEAN Trade Volume Hits Record High in 2017”,Xinhua English News,28 January,2018,http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-01/28/c_136931519.htm,登录时间:2018年8月10日。

[66] Charissa Yong,“Asean,China Agree on Text to Negotiate South China Sea Code”,The Straits Times,2 August,2018,https://www.straitstimes.com/politics/asean-china-agree-on-text-to-negotiate-south-china-sea-code,登录时间:2018年8月5日。

[67] “Asean-China People-To-People Exchange Reaches 50 Million”,13 July 2018,http://www.oananews.org/content/news/general/asean-china-people-people-exchange-reaches-50-million,登录时间:2018年8月5日。

[68] “Scholars and Experts Shared Thoughts and Insights on Deepening ASEAN-China Strategic Partnership-ASEAN-China Center”,Malaysia’s Advantages-ASEAN-China Center,5 August,2018,http://www.asean-china-center.org/english/2018-03/28/c_137097963.htm,登录时间:2018年8月5日。

[69] Munmun Majumdar,“BRI:Implications for Southeast Asia”,Asia Dialogue,15 September,2017,http://theasiadialogue.com/2017/09/15/bri-implications-for-southeast-asia/,登录时间:2018年8月5日。

[70] 译者注:“二轨外交”是一种特殊的非官方外交,相对于政府间的“第一轨外交”而言,通常是通过学者、退休官员的交流,以民间形式进行,由于方式较灵活、广泛,常可起到官方渠道难以起到的作用。