空间溢出视角下基础设施与出口技术复杂度

——基于动态空间杜宾模型的理论与实证^[1]

叶家柏 肖皓^[2]

摘要：中国产业结构升级的困局亟待被打破，并且国家技术特征难以反映区域技术特征。在理论分析的基础上，本文采用2002～2015年中国省域面板数据，利用动态空间杜宾模型研究基础设施对出口技术复杂度的影响。实证结果表明：中国各省域出口技术复杂度呈现从沿海地区向内陆地区梯度递减的格局分布。出口技术复杂度的提升具有扩散效应，而非聚集效应，并且具有显著的“时间惯性”效应。基础设施的完善稳健和显著地提升了各地区的出口技术复杂度，并且其空间溢出效应对出口技术复杂度的贡献远大于直接效应的贡献。自然禀赋对出口技术复杂度具有显著的抑制作用，尽管基础设施的完善有可能缓解自然禀赋的抑制作用，但是其交互项的正系数并不稳健。

关键词：出口技术复杂度 产业结构升级 基础设施 动态空间杜宾模型

中图分类号：F427.1 文献标识码：A

From the Angle of Spatial Spillover Infrastructure and Export Sophistication

—An Theory and Empirical Study Based on Dynamic Spatial Durbin Panel Model

Ye Jiabai Xiao Hao

Abstract：The dilemma of upgrading industrial structure needs breaking urgently in China，and the technical characteristics of the country are difficult to reflect the characteristics of regional technology. Based on theoretical analysis，this thesis studies the influence of infrastructure on export sophistication，utilizing dynamic spatial Durbin model and Chinese provincial panel data ranging from 2002 to 2015. The empirical results are as follows：The export sophistication of every Chinese province decreases progressively from coastal to inland areas. The export sophistication shows a diffusion effect but not assemblage effect. Besides it has significantly “time inertia” effects. The coefficient of infrastructure is and significantly improves the export sophistication in each region. Besides，the spatial spillover effect of infrastructure contributes more to export sophistication than the direct effect does. Natural endowments have a significant inhibitory effect on the export sophistication. Although it’s possible to mitigate the inhibition of natural endowments through infrastructure，the positive coefficients of their interactions are not robust.

Keywords：Export Sophistication Upgrading of Industrial Structure Infrastructure Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model